After digesting the non-farm payroll panic, who is orchestrating this rebound wave?

On June 8th, Bitcoin retook $63,000, rising over 5% in 24 hours. Many attribute this rebound to a "technical correction after overselling," but the true driving forces behind it are far more complex.

First driving force: macro sentiment recovery. Last Friday’s non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, sparking fears of rate hikes and causing irrational market sell-offs. But as Federal Reserve officials gradually spoke out to reassure—"a single data point doesn’t change the policy path"—the market began to calm down. The FedWatch data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows the probability of a rate cut in September rising from 48% on the day of the data release to over 60%. The fading of macro panic is the first cornerstone of this rebound.

Second driving force: structural recovery after leverage liquidation. On June 4th, over $1.1 billion in liquidations occurred across the entire network, nearly wiping out longs. Contract open interest plummeted 25%, and funding rates shifted from positive to negative. When almost no one dares to go long, the rebound becomes unusually easy—because only a small amount of buying pressure is needed to push prices higher. This 5% increase was achieved without significant volume expansion, indicating that short covering and short-squeeze funds were the main drivers.

Third driving force: inflow of ETF funds. Data shows that on June 7th and 8th, Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a reversal from three days of net outflows to slight net inflows. Although the amount is small, the signal is clear—institutions did not panic sell below $62,000, but instead began tentative buying.

So, can this rebound continue? My answer is: in the short term, expect consolidation; in the medium term, look for a breakout. The next key resistance is at $65,000. This level is not only a previous area of high trading volume but also a pressure point at the 200-day moving average. If prices can hold above $65,000 with volume, the rebound could turn into a reversal, targeting $68,000–$70,000. If it faces resistance and pulls back, then the strength of support at $62,000 must be watched closely.

Operationally, I plan to adopt a strategy of "holding core positions steadily + flexible trading for high sell and low buy." Core holdings will constitute 40% of total assets, holding BTC and ETH without change. The remaining 20% will be used for swing trading between $63,000 and $65,000: selling some near $65,000, buying back near $63,000. The remaining 40% cash will wait for clearer signals on the right side of the chart.

This rebound is an important stress test. It’s not the end of the bull market but a normal correction within the bull trend. Stay calm and follow the trend.

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