Rebound or Reversal? The Key Decision for Bitcoin After Returning to $63,000

June 8th, Bitcoin continued its rebound momentum, with a 24-hour increase of over 5%, successfully retaking the $63,000 level, recovering most of the losses since the sharp drop on June 4th. The panic over rate hikes triggered by non-farm payroll data has gradually been digested by the market, with mainstream coins like ETH and SOL also rallying strongly. So the question is: how far can this rebound go? Is it a short-term oversold bounce, or the start of a new upward trend?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's first resistance is at the $64,500-$65,000 range. This is the small platform area before the decline on June 4th, where many trapped positions have accumulated. If a volume breakout above $65,000 occurs, the next target is the previous high at $68,000-$70,000. Conversely, if multiple attempts to break above $64,500 fail, it is likely to retest support at $62,000-$62,500.

On a macro level, the rate hike panic triggered by the unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data has been initially digested by the market. Currently, the Fed Watch tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in September remains above 60%. As long as the rate cut expectations are not completely shattered, the valuation bottom of risk assets is rising. Additionally, ETF capital flows have shown signs of net inflows after the decline, indicating that institutions have not exited but are accumulating at low levels.

On-chain data shows that after the crash on June 4th, a large number of highly leveraged longs were liquidated, with contract positions decreasing by about 25%, and funding rates returning to neutral or even turning negative. This structure provides a healthy foundation for an upward trend—shedding burdens and moving lightly. Meanwhile, the BTC holdings on exchanges remain low, with no signs of large-scale whale sell-offs.

My judgment is: this rebound is likely to continue, but the process won't be smooth sailing. In the short term, expect consolidation and oscillation between $63,000 and $65,000, digesting selling pressure before breaking upward. The key resistance is at $65,000, with a breakout targeting $68,000; support is at $62,000, and a breakdown below that warrants caution for a second bottom.

In terms of trading strategy, I will continue holding spot positions around $63,000-$63,500 and avoid shorting lightly. If the price retests $62,000-$62,500 without breaking below, add 10% to positions. Take partial profits near $65,000 and keep some positions for a potential move to $68,000. Remember: a rebound is not achieved overnight; patience is more important than position size.

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