AI narratives shift from frenzy to skepticism, the Strait of Hormuz blockade pushes oil prices higher, inflation reemerges, but J.P. Morgan Wealth Management's mid-2026 outlook released on June 1st suggests: "Fragmentation, inflation, and AI disruptive risks are all overly pessimistically priced, and the current volatility is precisely a buying window."

AI has not peaked, but valuation anchors are being rewritten: the five major hyperscalers' capital expenditure expectations for 2026 exceed $650 billion (up by $130 billion), while Microsoft's forward P/E has fallen from 35 times to 22.5 times.
Inflation cannot return to 2%, cash is bleeding chronically: the US core PCE remains stuck at 3%, prices have risen 25% since 2020, while core fixed income only earns 6%. Among JPM's own clients, nearly 20% of assets are still in cash and short-term bonds, seemingly for risk avoidance but actually losing money.
Emerging markets present clearer opportunities in the second half: EM earnings expectations grow by 46%, P/E is only 11.8 times; Chinese stocks are discounted by 20% compared to other Asian markets, the deepest in 20 years, with JPM's stance "cautiously warming."
JPM's allocation strategy for the second half: focus on AI infrastructure (chips/light modules/electricity) + physical assets (commodities/gold/infrastructure) + emerging markets + defense; avoid cash, traditional subscription software, European autos and consumer goods, and a 60/40 pure stock-bond mix.