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1. On a macro level, a few major points:
1. The US-Iran conflict has been fluctuating repeatedly; under the influence of other funds, the most sensitive aspect of the US-Iran war is now only crude oil, while other factors are gradually becoming less sensitive, and the impact is diminishing. There are minor frictions, but the probability of a second full-scale escalation is low, meaning extreme conflicts have essentially disappeared, and the remaining developments are gradually improving. The US and Iran have paused hostilities, but other wars may still break out;
2. Regarding interest rate hikes, after the non-farm payroll data was released last Friday, the possibility of rate cuts has basically been reduced to zero. The remaining questions are whether the rate hikes are genuine, when they will be implemented, and how many times they will occur, all of which are highly negative for the market.
However, there are still some uncertainties at present. Judging the authenticity of rate hikes solely based on employment data is somewhat simplistic. The key is to watch Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on June 18.
The comments from Powell, who is presiding over his first policy meeting as Fed Chair, are actually more important. Powell is considered a reformist, rule-based, and market-oriented figure, meaning he tends to be more objective and results-driven. He does not like or advocate for signaling hawkish or dovish stances to the market in advance.
Currently, he is placing great emphasis on inflation and balance sheet reduction.
His first time chairing a meeting also marks his first opportunity to demonstrate his style to the market. Since he was supported by Trump when appointed, whether he can maintain independence from Trump is crucial and has a significant impact on the market. Trump has consistently emphasized and repeatedly demanded that the Fed cut interest rates.
If Powell’s comments this time align with Trump’s expectations and signal room for future rate cuts, the dollar will decline, and non-dollar currencies will rebound.
Conversely, if he adopts a tough stance,