#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票

Today’s TSMC Stock Market Outlook

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) showed strong pre-market trading today. As of 17:55 Beijing time, the pre-market increase was +2.38%, trading at $172.50 (yesterday’s close was $168.50). Key driving factors include:

Technical breakthroughs: 2nm process yield surpassing 85%, Apple/Nvidia adding third-quarter orders

Geopolitical easing: Stabilization of Taiwan Strait situation reducing supply chain risk premiums

Sector rotation: Capital shifting from AI software to semiconductor equipment, benefiting foundries

Technical indicator analysis

Trend and moving averages:

Stock price gap-up breakout above the critical resistance of $170, with 5-day/10-day/50-day moving averages in a bullish alignment

200-day moving average (at $160) slope continues to rise, maintaining a healthy medium- to long-term upward channel

Momentum indicators:

RSI reaching 65: approaching overbought zone but supported by effective volume

MACD divergence widening: red bars reaching a 3-week high, accelerating bullish momentum

Volume-price structure:

Yesterday’s volume: 19.8 million shares (exceeding the monthly average by 25%), breakout accompanied by institutional accumulation

Pre-market

171

−

Range of 171−173 with accumulated buy orders accounting for 72%, clear short covering

Key support and resistance levels

Support levels:

$170: psychological and breakout support

$167.20: resonance zone of the 5-day moving average and the upper edge of the gap

Resistance levels:

$174.80: year-high (set in April 2026)

$178: previous high + Fibonacci 138.2% extension

Market outlook

Short-term (1 week):

Expected to challenge the $175–178 resistance zone, with key points:

Thursday’s TSMC Technology Forum: progress on 2nm mass production and CoWoS packaging capacity expansion plans

Wednesday’s US CPI data: if core inflation ≤3.0%, it will reinforce valuation recovery for chip stocks

Medium to long-term (3 months):

Fundamental core drivers:

✅ Expansion of technological advantage: 2nm mass production leading Intel by 18 months, maintaining 58% market share

✅ AI chip boom: H100/B200 wafer orders scheduled for Q1 2027, capacity utilization at 98%

⚠ Geopolitical risk premium: US chip equipment ban escalation may impact Nanjing plant expansion

Operational suggestions

Short-term traders:

Go long above $171, with stop-loss at $168.8 (exit if gap is broken)

Add positions after breaking $174.8, target $176–178, take profits in stages

Long-term investors:

Current valuation (PE 18x) below industry average, recommend pyramid building:

Current price $172.50 (6%)

Pullback to $169 (9%)

Deep correction to $165 (12%)