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Today’s Nvidia Stock Market Outlook

Today’s Nvidia (NVDA) pre-market trading saw increased stock price volatility. As of the current time (17:20 Beijing time), the pre-market decline has narrowed to -0.52%, trading at $204.0378. Previously, due to the U.S. May non-farm employment data exceeding expectations, concerns about Federal Reserve interest rate hikes were triggered, leading to a collective plunge in U.S. tech stocks last Friday, with Nvidia dropping 6.20% in a single day, closing at $205.10. Today’s pre-market sentiment has eased somewhat, but the overall market remains cautious about tech stocks.

‌Technical Indicator Analysis‌

‌Trend and Moving Averages‌:

The stock price broke below the 50-day moving average (around $210) and the 200-day moving average (around $220), indicating a short-term weakening trend;

If today’s closing price cannot recover the 50-day moving average, it may further decline to test the support at the 200-day moving average.

‌Momentum Indicators‌:

‌RSI dropped to 35: approaching the oversold zone (below 30), indicating short-term rebound potential;

‌MACD histogram expanding: the fast line (DIF) crossed below the slow line (DEA), with increasing green bars, indicating dominance of bearish momentum.

‌Capital Flow‌:

Yesterday’s trading volume surged to 220 million shares, showing panic selling by investors;

Pre-market trading volume is low, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

‌Key Support and Resistance Levels‌

‌Support Levels‌:

‌$200: psychological threshold + a dense area of historical positions; breaking below may trigger technical selling;

‌$194: May’s low point, a core defensive line for bulls.

‌Resistance Levels‌:

‌$210: the 50-day moving average; a breakout requires volume exceeding 1.5 times the average daily trading volume;

‌$220: the 200-day moving average; a breakout would ease short-term downward pressure.

‌Market Outlook‌

‌Short-term (1-2 weeks)‌:

Expect stock price to fluctuate within the $200-$220 range, focusing on two main catalysts:

‌Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting‌: If the June meeting signals a rate cut, it will ease valuation pressures on tech stocks;

‌AI Sector Sentiment Recovery‌: If industry leaders (such as Nvidia, Microsoft) stabilize and rebound, sector recovery may be driven.

‌Medium to Long-term (3-6 months)‌:

Fundamental core logic:

✅ ‌Strong AI demand continues: data center revenue increased 92% YoY to $75 billion, mainly driven by AI demand;

✅ ‌High technical barriers: release of Blackwell and Rubin chip systems, consolidating AI computing power dominance;

⚠️ ‌Valuation pressure: current P/E ratio (TTM) around 31x, above industry average (25x), requiring sustained earnings surprises for support.

‌Trading Recommendations‌

‌Short-term traders‌:

‌Try small positions below $200, with a stop-loss at $198 (exit if breaking previous lows);

‌Add positions after breaking $210, targeting $220-230 (profit-taking near previous highs).

‌Long-term investors‌:

Current valuation remains attractive; consider phased building with a “pyramid averaging” strategy: three levels at $205/$195/$185;

Pay attention to dividend growth potential, with annual dividend costs around $2.2 billion, accounting for 2.7% of sales.