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Qualcomm Investment Research Report

Qualcomm closed last Friday at $215.94, down sharply by 10.98% from the previous trading day. Today, it opened at $237.65, reaching a high of $238.44, but then oscillated downward, with the lowest price touching $215.00, and a total market capitalization of $227.6 billion. Recent stock price fluctuations have been mainly influenced by the following factors:

‌External Market Impact‌: Last Friday night, U.S. stocks weakened significantly, with the Nasdaq index plunging over 4% in a single day. The AI sector was hit hardest, with Qualcomm, as a leading semiconductor company, bearing the brunt.

‌Tech Stock Sell-off‌: Global technology stocks faced increased adjustment pressure, with giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon declining simultaneously, as funds flowed into traditional safe-haven sectors such as healthcare and consumer goods.

‌Market Sentiment Deterioration‌: U.S. stocks tumbled at the close, with the AI sector being the hardest hit, and Qualcomm, as a semiconductor leader, being affected.

‌Technical Indicator Analysis‌:

‌Trend and Moving Averages‌:

The stock price broke below the 50-day moving average (around $225) and the 200-day moving average (around $230), indicating a weakening medium- to long-term trend;

Short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day) are in a bearish alignment with steep slopes, showing strong bearish momentum.

‌Momentum Indicators‌:

‌RSI dropped to 28‌: entering the oversold zone (below 30), indicating a strong short-term rebound demand but also warning of the risk of “oversold without rebound”;

‌MACD histogram‌ expanded significantly: the difference between the fast line (DIF) and the slow line (DEA) widened, with increasing green bars, dominated by bearish strength.

‌Capital Flow‌:

Today’s trading volume surged significantly, indicating panic-driven capital outflows, with net outflows exceeding $1 billion.

‌Key Support and Resistance Levels‌:

‌Support Levels‌:

‌$215‌: today’s intraday low, a break below may trigger technical selling, with a target of $200 (psychological level + December 2025 low);

‌$200‌: a dense area of historical positions, a core defensive line for bulls.

‌Resistance Levels‌:

‌$225‌: the 50-day moving average; a breakout requires volume exceeding 1.5 times the average daily trading volume;

‌$230‌: the 200-day moving average + psychological level; breaking through would ease short-term downward pressure.

‌Market Outlook‌:

‌Short-term (1-2 weeks)‌:

Expected to fluctuate within the $215-$230 range, focusing on two major catalysts:

‌Semiconductor sector sentiment recovery‌: If Micron, AMD, and other stocks stabilize and rebound, Qualcomm may follow suit;

‌Federal Reserve policy signals‌: If the June FOMC meeting signals rate cuts, it will ease valuation pressures on tech stocks.

‌Medium to Long-term (3-6 months)‌:

Fundamental core logic:

✅ ‌Strong growth in automotive business‌: In Q2 FY2026, automotive revenue grew 38% YoY to $1.3 billion, with an expected 50% YoY growth in Q3;

✅ ‌Stable IoT business‌: IoT revenue increased 9% to $1.7 billion, supporting diversification amid a plateauing mobile market;

⚠️ ‌Mobile market pressure‌: Global mobile market growth slowdown may pressure Qualcomm’s core business.

Institutional divergence is notable: some firms have lowered target prices to $180 (from $220), while others maintain a “buy” rating with a target of $280.

‌Investment Recommendations‌:

‌Short-term traders‌:

Light positions below $215, with a stop-loss at $210 (exit if breaking previous low);

Add positions after breaking $225, with a target of $230-$240 (profit-taking near previous highs).

‌Long-term investors‌:

Current valuation (FY2026 PE of 22.9x) is below industry average, with a dividend yield of 1.52%, suitable for dollar-cost averaging on dips;

Use a “pyramid” accumulation strategy: allocate in three tiers at $215/$205/$195.