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What stage is the U.S. stock market currently in within the bull market?
I previously discussed the script of the U.S. stock bull market: the S&P started this wave of the bull cycle in October 2022, and it is now in the fifth major wave, which itself is an extended wave. Currently, it is in the third sub-wave of the extended wave, that is, 5-3.
In the short term, sub-wave 1 of 5-3 (5-3-1) has already completed, and now it is entering the correction of 5-3-2. Last Friday, the U.S. stock market declined mainly for three reasons: non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and everyone is worried about interest rate hikes; Broadcom's Q3 AI guidance did not meet Wall Street's high expectations, and the full-year AI target was not raised, causing market concerns that "AI demand may slow down"; plus, the market surged too sharply in April and May, leading to profit-taking.
There are two upcoming tests: the CPI data to be released on June 10, and SpaceX's IPO on June 12. So, how deep this correction of 5-3-2 will go is still uncertain.
If the CPI data is relatively mild, the S&P may not break below the short-term support level of 6333; but if the CPI exceeds expectations, the probability of breaking support increases significantly.
The above analysis is my personal view, solely for reference, and does not constitute $BTC any investment advice!