#非农数据超预期加息预期升温 Is the Federal Reserve rate hike storm really coming?

After spending a tense weekend following "Black Friday," Wall Street traders are now worried that the latest inflation data to be released this Wednesday could show the largest year-over-year increase in U.S. CPI in years, further increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Last Friday, unexpectedly strong U.S. non-farm payroll data pushed yields higher and reinforced market expectations that the Fed will hike rates before December. Data showed that U.S. non-farm employment increased by 172k in May, nearly double the market expectation of 85k; the unemployment rate remained at a low 4.3%.

Following the release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, known as the "anchor" of global asset pricing, surged to 4.55% last Friday, hitting a two-week high. The two-year Treasury yield, which is especially sensitive to Fed policy expectations, reached 4.18%, a high not seen since February 2025. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index experienced its largest single-day point drop in history during last Friday’s "Black Friday" sell-off, plunging over 1,121 points, a 4.2% decline, also marking the biggest single-day percentage decline in over a year.

Currently, many investors are trying to position themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on June 17 (the first Fed meeting under Chair Kevin Wirth), before any hawkish shift occurs. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on Wednesday is likely to be the next major catalyst. Rate swap data linked to this report shows traders expect the May CPI year-over-year increase to reach about 4.3%—the highest since 2023—due to persistently high energy prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict.

Luigi Buttiglione, CEO of consulting firm LB Macro, said the idea that the Fed will have to cut rates has "disappeared, killed by the data." He predicts the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points this year, likely starting in September. Since late February, the global bond market has undergone a profound shift. At that time, U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran caused oil prices to surge, disrupting expectations that the Fed would cut rates in 2026. With this conflict now lasting over a hundred days and a lasting ceasefire still seemingly out of reach, energy prices could rise further, intensifying inflation concerns. The resilient U.S. economy adds headwinds to the bond market and complicates Wirth’s position—he may face pressure from the White House to lower borrowing costs. "If Kevin Wirth originally hoped to cut rates immediately after taking office, that now seems impossible," said Christophe Boucher, Chief Investment Officer at Dutch bank investment solutions. "The current labor market is too strong to justify a rate cut."

Market participants point out that whether it’s Wednesday’s CPI data or Thursday’s PPI index, any signals of further accelerating inflation could reinforce market expectations that Fed officials will remove the so-called "dovish bias" from their policy statements.

Over the past weekend, major Wall Street investment banks have all withdrawn their forecasts of rate cuts in 2026. Last Friday, economists at BNP Paribas predicted the Fed would raise rates three times starting in December. Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, has also completely abandoned expectations of rate cuts this year, pushing back the last two expected rate cuts to June and December 2027.

Goldman Sachs’ report states that the longer the pause in rate hikes, the more likely it is to reinforce the view that current rates are "at a reasonable level"; strong investment demand related to artificial intelligence could also provide more reasons to maintain high borrowing costs. Therefore, Goldman Sachs says maintaining rates unchanged remains a "feasible alternative" outside its baseline forecast. Although Goldman Sachs considers the likelihood of restarting rate hikes to be limited, it has raised the probability from 10% to 20%. It also lowered its forecast for the U.S. unemployment rate this year from 4.6% to 4.4%. Data from the interest rate swap market shows that last Friday, traders fully priced in a rate hike by the Fed once in 2026, with the probability of a hike in October reaching about 60%, and a December hike now considered a certainty.