#比特币回升5%

The three-wave bull and bear market tells me not to hope to bottom out at the peak! "Shorting in a downtrend, going long in an uptrend" is the safest.

Bitcoin finally breathes a sigh of relief, soaring 5% on Sunday and this morning, returning above $63,000, reclaiming most of its previous losses. Despite news of Iran launching airstrikes on Israel again, it did not scare off the bulls from attacking, indicating that after consecutive declines, the market has indeed accumulated enough momentum for a rebound. But for now, it’s just a rebound; everyone should not blindly chase the rally. It’s still too early to say that 591,000 is the bottom of this bear market. In the short term, focus remains on shorting, with close attention to the resistance at the 65,000 level.

From a technical perspective on the short-term trend, the RSI (14 days) once dropped to an extreme oversold level of 17, the Stochastic fell to 4, and the CCI (20) reported -241, all indicating historic-level oversold signals. But oversold does not equal reversal—MACD (12/26) shows -3,059, and the momentum indicator reports -14,743, with the medium-term trend still strongly bearish. On the 4-hour chart, the price is in a consolidation phase after the rebound. On the daily chart, watch for support around 61,500; if broken, a new downward wave could begin. The weekly chart remains in the last wave of the five-wave decline I mentioned earlier, with MACD about to form a death cross, and the lower Bollinger Band near 60,500, leaving room for further decline. Regarding moving averages, all tracking lines from EMA10 to SMA200 point downward, with no buy signals. Therefore, the short-term strategy remains mainly short.

However, from a long-term perspective, I believe the historic-level bottoming opportunity has arrived! Since the peak at 12 weeks ago, the decline has totaled 50%. On the weekly chart, this is already the final wave of the five-wave decline, which is what everyone calls the "last dip" of the bear market. The trend could reverse at any time. For long-term investors, the current holdings are already quite cheap. Having experienced 3-4 bull and bear cycles, every bottom was reached unexpectedly, and reversals often occurred when everyone thought it was just the "mid-mountain" point. So don’t always try to catch the absolute bottom; long-term investing only needs to focus on returns over a few months or a year or two. Reduce leverage, buy at low points, and believe that there will be good opportunities by the end of the year!

My trading and allocation strategy

In light of the current market, I recommend a short-term short and long-term long strategy:

Short-term investors

Direction: Short

Entry point: Above 63,000

Take profit target: 59,900

Stop-loss risk management: Above 65,000

Long-term investors

Direction: Long

Entry point: Below 60,000

Take profit target: Hold long-term

Stop-loss risk management: Reduce leverage; spot holdings can avoid setting stop-losses to prevent stop-loss hunts.

This is my view on the current market. I hope it helps everyone, and I still wish all family members daily prosperity!