Different choices after the plunge: institutions scoop up the bottom, traders shift to U.S. stocks

Original Title: "The State of Sentiment After the Crash: Institutions Call for Bottom Fishing, Traders Shift to U.S. Stocks"
Author: Ma He, Foresight News

Author: Foresight News

Source:

Reprint: Mars Finance

On June 6, BTC briefly fell below the $60k level, with a low of $59,130.
By June 8, Bitcoin's price rebounded to around $63,000,
although the price had recovered several thousand dollars, the previous breach of a key round number level still dealt a heavy blow to confidence and sentiment in the crypto market.

Currently, its fear index is at 15, and market sentiment remains extremely fearful.
Most altcoins are also moving in unison, experiencing deep retracements along with the broader market.

Is now the time to bottom fish?
Institutions, traders, and others have shared their views.

Glassnode Co-founder: $46k to $54k is the key bottom range

Glassnode co-founder Rafael stated that Bitcoin has retraced about 50% from its all-time high,
on-chain data shows that BTC is currently operating near an important support zone between the realized price median ($64.1k) and the 200-week moving average (MA) ($61.7k).

Historically, Bitcoin has spent only about 7% of trading time below this level.

From a long-term valuation model perspective, below the 200-week MA are the realized price (about $54k), CVDD (about $46.2k), equilibrium price (about $40k), and delta price (about $35k).
Each of these cost zones has historically marked bottoms during bear markets, with CVDD considered the most accurate historical bottom anchor.
According to current models, the range of $46k to $54k has a higher probability of being the bottom, while $35k to $40k represents a deep capitulation in extreme panic scenarios, accounting for less than 3% of trading days historically.

However, as the Bitcoin market matures, the retracement amplitudes tend to narrow.
Previous bear markets saw maximum declines of 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively, while this cycle has only fallen about 50% from its all-time high.
This suggests there is still potential for further downside, but the more probable bottom is in the $46k to $54k range.
If a rebound occurs, the first significant recovery zone would be between $75k and $79k, with larger resistance levels near the 50-week MA around $93k and previous all-time highs.

NYDIG Global Research Head: AI is draining significant crypto capital

Greg Cipolaro, head of global research at NYDIG, stated in a research report that he believes the overlap between AI and crypto investors is much greater than many imagine.
Both attract investors seeking exposure to emerging technologies and excess returns.
As AI-related stocks continue to outperform the broader market, capital flows out of the crypto market and shifts into stocks.
Investors are also preparing for what could be the largest tech IPO cycle in years.
Quantum computing and Strategy selling BTC have also heightened market concerns.

Cipolaro’s report indicates that several indicators are approaching levels associated with major historical bottoms.
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has fallen to 1.2, and the percentage of supply in profit recently dropped below 50%, another indicator often associated with capitulation.
However, the current retracement is still relatively mild by historical standards.
He notes that Bitcoin has declined about 53% from its peak of $126k in October, far less than the 75%-90% retracements seen in previous cycles.
Whether a bottom has already formed likely depends on whether institutional demand structurally shifts the cycle or merely delays a deeper correction.

Standard Chartered Digital Asset Research Head: Bitcoin’s bottom is nearly in place

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said that Bitcoin’s bottom is "almost formed," and the current price range could be a long-awaited buying opportunity for investors.

The recent decline was mainly triggered by Strategy selling 32 BTC, but based on historical experience from late 2022, Strategy is likely to quickly buy back on a larger scale, with repurchase amounts potentially reaching 10 to 100 times the amount sold previously.

Confirmation of buying interest would be an important market bottom signal.

Strive CEO: Bitcoin has touched the 200-week moving average (fifth time in history), and the first four times were perfect entry points

Matt Cole, CEO of asset management firm Strive, told CNBC Squawk Box Europe that Bitcoin touching the 200-week moving average (the fifth time in history) has historically been a perfect bottoming opportunity.
He also emphasized that Bitcoin’s fundamentals "have never been better," viewing this touch as a historic buying opportunity.

Trader Eugene: Has temporarily exited crypto market, shifting focus to U.S. stocks, no longer attempting to bottom fish Bitcoin

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he has basically exited the crypto market since May 13 this year, shifting his main focus to stock market research.
He believes that compared to the current crypto market, stocks are more attractive in terms of research depth, cognitive challenges, and trading and investment opportunities.
Based on his assessment of the industry’s current state, he plans to maintain this strategy for the foreseeable future, only continuing to monitor crypto industry developments without actively trading.

Eugene further stated that unless there are highly attractive risk-reward opportunities, he has no plans to re-enter the crypto market, as he has not yet seen such conditions.
He believes that the development trajectory of the crypto market is weakening its appeal as a trading and investment field, so he will focus on traditional stocks in the short term.

Regarding Strategy, Eugene thinks the associated risks are just beginning to surface.
He said that even if Strategy has recently sold more Bitcoin, it only delays the problem rather than truly solving it.

Until the high correlation between Strategy and Bitcoin is broken, he remains skeptical about long positions on Bitcoin.
He admits he cannot determine the market bottom but has stopped trying to "catch falling knives" in bottom fishing trades.

Trader Killa: Now is a good opportunity to wait and buy

Trader Killa tweeted during Bitcoin’s decline on June 6 that now is a generational buying opportunity.
On June 8, he said BTC has entered the "final stage" and "final extension," and he has already deployed 90% of his position.

Additionally, Killa noted that the "protective buy walls" that appeared during last weekend’s crash have not been withdrawn, and he believes the chances of quickly hitting these supports in the short term are low.
Killa is a quantitative trader focused on BTC, who previously predicted the top of this bull cycle in May 2025.

Analyst Darkfost: Bitcoin has entered an extremely undervalued zone

Analyst Darkfost’s data shows that Bitcoin has retested the Power Law model and fallen below the 4% quantile line, entering an extremely undervalued zone, which has only occurred about 4% of the time historically.
Darkfost emphasizes that this is an appropriate time for long-term position building, not a short-term price forecast.

Polymarket Data: 72% chance BTC drops below $55k

Latest data from Polymarket shows a 41% probability that BTC will fall below $45k, a 56% chance of dropping below $50k, and a 72% chance of falling below $55k.
The probability of dropping below $40k is 31%, and below $35k is only 21%.

Most market participants currently believe the probability of BTC falling below $35k–$40k is not high.