Different choices after the plunge: institutions buy the dip, traders switch to U.S. stocks

Original Title: Scenes of Life After the Crash: Institutions Call for the Dip Buy, Traders Turn to US Stocks
Original Author: Mahe, Foresight News

On June 6, BTC briefly broke below the $60,000 level, dropping to as low as $59,130. On June 8, the price of Bitcoin rebounded to around $63,000. Although the price has recovered by several thousand dollars, the heavy blow to confidence and sentiment in the crypto market from previously breaking key integer support levels remains severe.

Its current fear index is 15, and market sentiment is still one of extreme fear. Most altcoins are also moving in lockstep, falling into a deep retracement along with the broader market.

Is this a dip-buying range? Institutions, traders, and others have shared their views.

Glassnode Co-founder: $46,000 to $54,000 is the key bottom range

Glassnode co-founder Rafael said in a post that Bitcoin is down about 50% from its historical high. On-chain data shows that BTC is currently operating near an important support area formed by the realized price median ($64.1k) and the 200-week moving average ($61.7k).

Historically, Bitcoin has spent only about 7% of trading time below this level.

From a long-term valuation model perspective, below the 200-week moving average, the realized price (about $54k), CVDD (about $46.2k), equilibrium price (about $40k), and Delta price (about $35k) are distributed in sequence. In past bear-market bottoms, this cost zone was often touched before a reversal was completed. CVDD is considered the most precise historical bottom anchor. Based on the current model, $46,000 to $54,000 forms a bottom area with a higher probability. Meanwhile, $35,000 to $40,000 is a deep capitulation zone under extreme panic scenarios, historically accounting for less than 3% of trading days.

However, as the Bitcoin market continues to mature, the magnitude of cyclical retracements has shown a trend of narrowing. In previous bear markets, the largest declines reached 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively. So far in this cycle, Bitcoin has fallen only about 50% from its historical high. This suggests there is still a possibility of further downside, but the bottom with a higher probability may be in the $46,000 to $54,000 range. If a rebound follows, $75,000 to $79,000 will become the first major recovery area, while the larger pressure level lies near the 50-week moving average around $93,000 and near prior historical highs.

NYDIG Global Research Head: AI is draining large amounts of crypto capital

In a research report, Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s head of global research, said he believes the overlap between AI and crypto investors is far greater than many people imagine. Both attract investors seeking exposure to emerging technologies and excess returns. As AI-related stocks continue to outperform the broader market, capital flows out and rotates from the crypto market. Investors are also preparing for what could become the largest-scale technology IPO cycle in years. Quantum computing and Strategy selling BTC have also intensified market concerns.

Cipolaro said in the report that multiple indicators are approaching levels historically consistent with major bottoms. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has dropped to 1.2, and the percentage of supply in profit has recently fallen below 50%, which is another indicator often associated with capitulation. However, by historical standards, the magnitude of this retracement is still relatively mild. He noted that Bitcoin is down about 53% from its peak (the $126k in October), which is far less than the 75%-90% retracement seen in previous cycles. Whether a bottom has already formed likely depends on whether institutional demand structurally changes the cycle, or whether it is merely delaying a deeper reset,

Standard Chartered Bank Digital Asset Research Head: Bitcoin’s bottom has almost formed

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, said the Bitcoin bottom has “almost formed,” and the current price range could be a buying opportunity investors have been expecting for a long time.

One important trigger for this round of declines is Strategy selling 32 BTC. However, referencing historical experience from late 2022, Strategy is likely to quickly execute a larger-scale rebound buyback. The expected repurchase size could reach 10 times, or even 100 times, the amount previously sold.

If buy pressure is confirmed, it will be an important signal that the market has reached its bottom.

Strive CEO: Bitcoin Touches the 200-Week Moving Average (the fifth time in history); the first four times were perfect dip-buying opportunities

Matt Cole, CEO of asset management firm Strive, told CNBC Squawk Box Europe that when Bitcoin touched the 200-week moving average (the fifth time in history), the first four times were “perfect dip-buying opportunities.” He also emphasized that Bitcoin’s fundamentals have “never been better,” and he views this touch of the 200-week moving average as a historic buying opportunity.

Trader Eugene: Has temporarily stepped away from the crypto market, turning to US stocks; won’t try to bottom-fish Bitcoin again

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he has essentially exited the cryptocurrency market since May 13 of this year and will focus mainly on stock market research. He believes that compared with the current crypto market, the stock market is more attractive in terms of research depth, cognitive challenges, and trading and investment opportunities. Based on his assessment of the industry’s current state, he expects to maintain this strategy for the foreseeable future, only continuing to monitor developments in the crypto industry without actually participating in trades.

Eugene also said that unless the market presents an extremely attractive risk-reward opportunity, he has no plans to return to the crypto market, and he has not yet seen such conditions emerge. He believes the crypto market’s development trajectory is weakening its appeal as a field for trading and investing, so in the near term he will keep his focus on traditional stock markets.

When discussing Strategy, Eugene said he believes the related risks are only just beginning to show. He said that even if Strategy has sold more BTC recently, it has only pushed the issue back rather than truly solving it.

Until the strong correlation between Strategy and Bitcoin is broken, he does not see favorable opportunities for going long on Bitcoin. As for the market’s bottom area, he admitted he cannot judge, but he is no longer trying to “catch falling knives” with dip-buying trades.

Trader Killa: Now is a waiting-to-buy opportunity

During Bitcoin’s decline on June 6, trader Killa tweeted that now is a generational buying opportunity. On June 8, he said BTC has entered its “final stage” and “final extension,” and he has deployed 90% of his position.

In addition, Killa said that the “protective buy-wall” seen during last weekend’s crash has not been withdrawn, and he believes it is unlikely that these support levels will be reached quickly in the short term. Killa is a quant trader focused on BTC, and he previously predicted the peak of this bull cycle in May 2025.

Analyst Darkfost: Bitcoin has entered an extremely undervalued zone

Analyst Darkfost’s data shows that Bitcoin has retraced the Power Law model and fallen below the 4% quantile line, entering an extremely undervalued zone. Historically, only 4% of the time has BTC been at this valuation level. Darkfost emphasized that this is an appropriate period to build positions over the long term, not a short-term price prediction.

Polymarket data: 72% chance BTC falls below $55,000

Polymarket’s latest data shows that the probability of BTC falling below $45,000 is 41%, the probability of falling below $50,000 is 56%, and the probability of falling below $55,000 is 72%. The probability of falling below $40,000 is 31%, and the probability of falling below $35,000 is only 21%.

Most market participants currently believe the probability of BTC falling below $35,000–$40,000 is not high.

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