Last Wednesday, US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded products (ETPs) experienced outflows for the 13th consecutive trading day, marking the longest outflow period since these products launched in January 2024.

During these 13 trading days, the related products have a total outflow of $4.33 billion (approximately 60k Bitcoins). Based on the rolling 20-day data, the outflow reached $5.42 billion (about 73k Bitcoins), setting a record for the largest 20-day outflow in history. Last week also marked the fourth consecutive week of net outflows for these products.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has fallen below $64k for the first time since February, down 49% from the all-time high of $124,824 set on October 6, 2025. Compared to previous retracements after all-time highs, Bitcoin’s price performance over the past 240 days is highly similar to past peaks.

Galaxy Research’s Fear and Greed Index dropped to 13, entering the “Extreme Fear” zone, the lowest reading this year. (The index combines on-chain transaction data, derivatives trading, valuation, profit-taking, and ETF fund flow data).

Our View

Current Bitcoin market sentiment has fallen to multi-year lows. After the US election in November 2024, going long on Bitcoin was the most popular trading strategy worldwide. But now, amid the massive influx of AI-related trading activity, Bitcoin is no longer the focus of global investors.

Last year, many analysts believed that Bitcoin’s iconic four-year cycle would not repeat. This judgment was based on factors including: the diminishing supply shock from the halving events every four years, a significant narrowing of market volatility, continuous inflows into passive ETFs, and Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high before the halving for the first time.

However, data shows that the 2024–2026 cycle remains highly similar to previous cycles. In the past three cycles, starting from October of the halving year (six months before the halving), it took between 403 and 441 days for the market to reach its all-time high, while this cycle took 370 days.

In the previous three cycles, after reaching the last all-time high, the market bottomed out within 12 to 13 months (354 to 406 days). With 240 days passed since the current cycle’s all-time high, if the pattern fully repeats, the market’s final bottom is likely to occur in the fourth quarter of this year.

Setting aside the underlying causes, the similarity of the cycles objectively exists, and it’s not just in terms of time. The trends of several core indicators in the past three cycles have formed fixed patterns, which are again evident in 2026: CVDD, realized price, realized market cap, on-chain activity, staking lock-up ratio, unrealized profit and loss (NUPL), reserve risk, market cap to realized market cap ratio (MVRV), spent output profit ratio (SOPR), as well as Mayer multiples and Puell multiples—all showing characteristics similar to those at the peak of previous bull markets and subsequent retracements. Here are some examples...

Bitcoin has been declared “completely collapsed” at least 472 times, yet it has always persisted. Even if Bitcoin’s price drops to $30k, it remains twice the low point of the last bear market. Most investors entering at this level hold a long-term view, believing Bitcoin is digital gold, and the number of such investors and their holdings have been growing in each cycle. If Bitcoin can truly transform from a “risk asset” into widely recognized digital gold, these investors have played a crucial role.

BTC1.63%

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