Trump urges Israel "Don't fight," Iran's missiles have already been launched, WTI oil prices rebound nearly 3%

U.S. Sunday Calls for Israel to Suspend Retaliation, Trump Calls Netanyahu: "We're Close to a Deal." Iranian Military Warns: Missiles Ready, Will Expand Strikes if Fired.
(Background summary: Iran sets bottom line for peace MOU: 50% asset freeze must be returned immediately, including $1 billion in cryptocurrency)
(Additional background: Trump signals "U.S. is close to disentangling from Iran," halts war efforts to save midterm elections)

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• Iranian missiles have been launched: "Not difficult, scale will be larger"
• Trump calls: "Give us some time"
• Oil prices rebound, U.S. stock index futures weaken
• Impact on Taiwan: energy costs and yen move in the same direction

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations are entering the final stretch. On June 8, U.S. officials revealed that Trump directly asked Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Sunday to delay retaliation, citing "we are close to reaching a good agreement."

Iranian missiles have been launched: "Not difficult, scale will be larger"

On July 7, Israel confirmed that Iran had launched missiles at it, marking Iran’s first direct attack since the ceasefire on April 8, triggered by Israel’s surprise airstrike on southern Beirut that day (according to NPR reports).

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency on July 7 quoted military sources saying Iran is prepared to respond to further Israeli actions, with a significant number of missiles currently on standby. If Israel fires back with missiles, Iran will immediately expand the scope of its strikes, targeting a larger area within Israeli-controlled zones, surpassing previous operations.

The sources also emphasized that Iran is ready for the possibility of large-scale military conflict and urged Israel to "take this warning seriously."

Trump calls: "Give us some time"

According to Axios, a U.S. official familiar with the call revealed that Trump told Netanyahu to hold off on action during the call. Netanyahu raised some objections, but ultimately "reluctantly agreed" to hold off for now. The U.S. official described Sunday’s call as calmer than the tense exchanges between the leaders last week, with Trump "not raising his voice."

Trump is quite confident in his judgment: "I believe Israel will not take any immediate action. We’ve spent three months on this, and it’s time to end it."

On the same day, Trump also addressed Iran: "You’ve launched missiles, and that’s enough. Now it’s time to return to the negotiating table and reach an agreement."

Oil prices rebound, U.S. stock index futures weaken

Market news shows that WTI crude oil futures rose 2.98% in Monday’s Asian session, trading at $93.235 per barrel. U.S. stock index futures generally declined, with Dow futures down 0.46%, S&P 500 futures down 0.50%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.62%. This indicates that markets are more sensitive to oil price rebounds than to confidence in U.S. stock performance.

Review recent oil price trends: After the U.S.-Iran ceasefire in April, Iran launched missiles at Israel again within two months. WTI crude once surged past $109 in late May, then retreated to $92 after Trump announced the ceasefire. The news of Iran’s missile activity again re-prices Middle Eastern supply risks.

Impact on Taiwan: Energy costs and yen move in tandem

As an energy-importing country, Taiwan’s annual energy import costs increase by about NT$2.5 billion for every $1 increase in oil prices. If WTI stays above $90, annual energy expenses could rise by NT$50-60 billion compared to 2025. Additionally, rising oil prices tend to boost inflation expectations, potentially affecting the Federal Reserve’s rate cut pace and influencing the New Taiwan dollar exchange rate.

From a crypto market perspective, rising oil prices generally favor BTC (crude oil and BTC prices have a correlation coefficient of about 0.65 in 2025-2026), but short-term escalation risks in U.S.-Iran conflict could still cause volatility.