#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 Predictions about the bursting of the U.S. stock market bubble

On June 5th, the NASDAQ plummeted 5% overnight, with the single-day point decline hitting a record high. The S&P 500 was also not spared. There's an old Wall Street saying: "No crash ends on a Friday." Generally, the following Monday (6/8) and Tuesday (6/9), the U.S. stock market tends to close lower.
The implied volatility of U.S. stocks (VIX fear index) jumped from 16 to 21 overnight (up 5%).
I. About VIX: The VIX unit is percentage points, representing the expected annualized volatility of U.S. stocks over the next 30 days. The higher the value, the greater the panic and the more intense the market.
1. Normal range (market stable) 10 ~ 20: Market sentiment is stable, trading is normal, U.S. stocks mostly rise slowly or fluctuate slightly, with low risk. A healthy normal range, making long positions and holdings relatively safe.
2. Caution zone (beginning to worry) 20 ~ 30: Concerns are increasing, negative news tends to amplify, volatility intensifies, and short-term corrections become more likely. Actions: reduce positions, lower leverage, avoid chasing highs.
3. Panic zone (obvious risk aversion) 30 ~ 40: Market panic is evident, sharp declines and rapid drops are common, funds collectively seek safety. Actions: focus on defense, avoid bottom fishing, stay on the sidelines.
4. Extreme panic (big drop / crisis) >40: Extreme panic, often associated with stock crashes and systemic risks (financial crises, black swans). Historical market bottoms often occur during VIX peaks and pullbacks, but this does not mean an immediate reversal.
Additional: Very low range (excessive optimism) <10: Market is extremely optimistic and numb, alert for bubbles and sudden reversals (euphoria leads to sorrow).
II. The remarkable similarity between the 2026 and 2000 U.S. stock market trends
If the current trend continues—though we cannot yet confirm it will abruptly stop—then the final burst of the U.S. stock bubble is roughly three months away, around late August or early September.
Given that the U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong, the probability of the stock bubble collapsing is not high, but it’s important to emphasize: we are approaching the tail end of the bubble. The last phase of a bubble is often dazzling and irresistible, but all bubbles will eventually burst. In other words, the next three months, from June to August, are a critical window to observe the bubble’s potential burst.
III. The relationship between U.S. stock trends and midterm elections
This coincides with the timing of U.S. midterm elections: stocks tend to rise from June to August 2022; then start to decline from August to November, which is eerily similar to previous model trends!
Therefore, friends holding U.S. stocks can consider cautiously reducing their positions around August 20th until the November elections are over. We will wait and see! $NAS100 $US500500 ‌ ‌