#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 U.S. Stocks Weekly Outlook

This decline is a correction to take profits, not a shift into a bear market.
Historical data speaks more directly: Over the past 12 months after the top ten single-day drops in the S&P, there is a 90% probability of a strong rally, with average excess returns in double digits. Extreme panic selling points are often better entry opportunities in the next 12 months.
The rhythm of the coming weeks needs to be thought through.
Monday: First fall, then watch V. The opening on Monday will likely have an additional 1-1.5% inertia downward. This is not new negative news but a mechanical continuation of margin liquidations. But this is also an opportunity; historical data shows that after the VIX rises more than 20% in a single day, there is a 95% chance of a technical rebound in the next two trading days. So after Monday’s drop, a V-shaped rebound is highly probable. The key is not to rush in to buy the dip at the open on Monday, but to wait for the decline to stabilize and then look for signals.
Tuesday: During the rebound, clear out high-beta small-cap stocks.
If a rebound occurs on Monday and Tuesday, it’s a window to reduce positions, not to add. High-beta small caps, purely narrative concept stocks, and targets previously hyped by hype traders should be sold during the rebound. If you haven’t cut losses during the rebound next week, you should seriously consider it. In a liquidity-tightening environment, high-beta small caps are the first to be abandoned.
Wednesday: CPI is the biggest risk point.
Next Wednesday, the May CPI data will be released, which is the most dangerous single event coming up. If CPI exceeds expectations, the rate hike expectations will be further reinforced, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may rise again, leading to a second round of market declines. Therefore, after reducing positions on Tuesday’s rebound, maintain sufficient cash holdings before the CPI data is released. Don’t bet on the CPI data; wait for the results.
Friday: SpaceX goes public, the day of the strongest liquidity siphon effect. On June 12, SpaceX officially listed at $135 per share. On this day, market liquidity will be heavily drained, putting pressure on tech stocks and semiconductors. Do not chase any stocks at high prices on this day.
June 17: The new Fed Chair’s first speech. Warsh will speak to the media after the FOMC meeting for the first time. The market perceives him as hawkish, and the dot plot may be adjusted upward to reflect expectations of a rate hike. This is the last major risk event in June. However, Wall Street is using the decline to pressure the Fed to prevent reckless rate hikes or hawkish comments, so it’s guessed that Warsh will sound dovish during the meeting.
Another key point to watch next week: Are all sectors falling or only semiconductors and tech stocks, while defensive sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, and energy are rising? If only semiconductors and tech stocks continue to be under pressure but defensive sectors outperform, it indicates that funds haven’t truly left the U.S. stock market but are just shifting sectors to hedge risks.
In this case, the bull market logic remains intact, and the correction is healthy. But if defensive sectors also start falling, it indicates a full withdrawal of funds, and systemic risk is still being released. Then, it’s necessary to maximize cash holdings and wait for the market to stabilize.
VIX and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield are the most important indicators next. Keep an eye on two lines for VIX:
VIX falling below 20 indicates that systemic risk is temporarily alleviated, and the market becomes tradable again.
VIX staying above 23 suggests liquidity stress is still ongoing, and any rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions. Holding cash fully and waiting is the best choice.
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