Why Bitcoin price could fall below $62,000 despite oversold conditions - CoinJournal

• Bitcoin ETF outflows remain negative for 11 straight days, pressuring BTC.
• $749 million in liquidations have accelerated the Bitcoin price drop.
• RSI below 18 shows oversold conditions, but trend stays bearish.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been under sustained pressure, trading around the $63,548 level after a sharp multi-week decline that has erased a large portion of its recent recovery.

Notably, the BTC price decline reflects a combination of institutional selling, forced liquidations, and weakening market structure that continues to dominate short-term price action.

Even though technical indicators now show deeply oversold conditions, the broader flow of capital suggests that downside risk remains active.

The current setup places Bitcoin in a zone where short-term relief rallies are possible, but sustained recovery has yet to form.

Bitcoin ETF outflows weigh heavily on the BTC price

One of the most consistent pressures on Bitcoin has been the ongoing withdrawal of capital from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Data shows a stretch of 11 consecutive days of net outflows, including a single-day redemption of roughly $519 million on June 2.

Over the past ten days from May 25, 2026 to June 3, 2026, Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed over 3 billion worth of outflows according to CoinGlass data.

This pattern has effectively removed a major source of steady institutional demand.

According to Citi analysts, ETF flows account for about 45% of weekly return variation, highlighting how strongly prices now respond to institutional positioning.

With flows turning negative for nearly two weeks, Bitcoin has been left without its primary demand driver at a time when selling pressure is already elevated.

This shift is important because ETFs were previously absorbing large amounts of Bitcoin supply during the recovery phase.

The current reversal means that instead of acting as a stabilizing force, ETFs are now contributing to downside momentum.

Without a clear return of net inflows, price stability above the mid-$60,000 range has remained difficult to sustain.

Liquidations and macro pressure amplify the decline

Alongside ETF outflows, leveraged positions in the derivatives market have added fuel to the downturn.

More than $749.982 million in leveraged long positions have been liquidated within a 24-hour window during the sell-off, according to market data.

These forced closures have accelerated price movement lower rather than allowing gradual adjustment.

Bitcoin’s drop below key technical zones has triggered additional selling, reinforcing a cascading effect where falling prices lead to further liquidation pressure.

At the same time, macroeconomic conditions have reduced the overall appetite for risk assets.

Strong US employment data has pushed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts further into the future, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment.

This has reduced liquidity flowing into speculative markets, including crypto.

In addition, geopolitical tensions, particularly renewed instability involving Iran and broader global risk concerns, have also contributed to defensive positioning across financial markets.

In this environment, Bitcoin has continued to trade in line with high-risk assets rather than acting independently.

Technical structure shows oversold conditions but no confirmed reversal

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is showing some of the most extreme oversold readings in recent months.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index has dropped to around 17.7–18, a level that typically reflects heavy selling exhaustion.

Historically, readings this low have often preceded short-term relief rallies.

However, other technical indicators present a more cautious picture.

Bitcoin is currently trading below all major exponential moving averages, including the 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. This alignment signals a strong bearish trend across multiple timeframes.

Looking at the short-term Bitcoin price projections, the immediate support zone sits near $62,964, while a broader structural floor is located around the $60,000 region, which also aligns with long-term trend indicators.

A breakdown below $62,964 would increase the likelihood of a move toward lower liquidity zones near $60,000 and potentially $55,000.

On the upside, Bitcoin would need to close above $69,124 to shift short-term momentum. If that level is reclaimed, the next resistance zone is positioned near $71,589, which would signal early signs of structural recovery.

But until then, the trend remains heavily influenced by downside momentum rather than reversal signals.

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