Glassnode Co-founder: Bitcoin’s bottoming range has become clear; the bottom is most likely between $46,000 and $54,000.

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Gold Financial reports that Glassnode co-founder Rafael published an analysis of Bitcoin price trends, pointing out that Bitcoin is currently in the $62k range, down nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a 24% decline over the past month. The price has crossed above its pricing framework's upper band and entered the valuation cluster area where bottoms have appeared in historical cycles.
Rafael further noted that market bottoms cannot be confirmed in advance, only potential bottom signals can be defined through probabilistic ranges and key price levels. Bitcoin has first fallen below the breakeven line for median holders (for the first time since December 2022), currently located in a broader support zone: the median realized price is about $64.1k, and the 200-week moving average price is about $61.7k.
The high-probability bottom range at this stage may be between $46,000 and $54k, while the rare "selling tail" below this range at $35,000–$40k. It is worth noting that the cycle correction amplitude is gradually decreasing: previous lows declined by approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, while this round has only fallen about 50%, indicating that the high-probability bottom is more likely to be in the upper part of the range, but extreme sell-offs cannot be ruled out.
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