Orchard's 12% probability decrease is quite interesting; in cryptography, things that can't be proven false can only be guessed at by the market. Privacy and auditability are truly natural adversaries.

CryptoWorld News reports that XBIT DEX prediction market data shows that the probability of Zcash’s Orchard privacy pool being exploited has dropped to about 12% (the market settles on January 1, 2027). The vulnerability was discovered by security researcher Taylor Hornby during an audit using Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 model on May 29, and an emergency fix was completed on June 1. Due to the privacy design of Orchard transactions, it is cryptographically impossible to confirm whether it was exploited before the patch, so the market tends to believe it is difficult to verify.