everything you need to check at the start of the week to understand why stocks, crypto and commodities are moving:

almost every move in stocks, crypto, gold, real estate comes down to one number: the fed's rate.
inflation + jobs → tell the fed what to do with rates → rates set the price of literally everything else.
why?
> borrowing gets expensive → companies invest less, people spend less.
> a government bond paying 4-5% "risk-free" competes with stocks and crypto. money leaves risky stuff for the safe stuff.
> future profits get discounted harder → today's value drops. this hits tech and crypto worst, because their whole value is in the future.
so main question every monday is: is the fed cutting, hiking or holding?
the market doesn't react to the number. it reacts to the gap between the number and what everyone expected. 3% inflation is good news if everyone expected 3.5%, and bad news if they expected 2.5%.
what to check:
1/ the fed funds rate
> between meetings the rate is frozen, what moves markets daily is the expectations.
> cme fedwatch is the #1 tool: tells you what's already priced in (a cut at 95% odds = nothing happens). watch the change week to week:
2/ inflation
hot inflation = no cuts. cooling = the fed's hands are free. falling inflation = good for risk.
> cpi: the headline gauge, monthly. read core (ex food & energy) and actual vs forecast. hotter = bad, cooler = good. →
> core pce: the gauge the fed targets (goal: 2%). matters more than cpi. →
3/ jobs
> nfp: nonfarm payrolls, net jobs, first friday of the month. read jobs vs forecast, unemployment rate, and wages (hot wages = sticky inflation = tough fed). →
> jobless claims: weekly (thursday) pulse. a steady climb = labor market rolling over before nfp shows it. →
> adp: private payrolls 2 days before nfp. rough preview, tracks the real number poorly. →
4/ growth & activity
> gdp: broadest measure, quarterly. two negative quarters = informal recession. →
> retail sales: the consumer is the engine. spends = economy holds, pulls back = slowdown. →
> umich sentiment: household mood + inflation expectations (can self-fulfill). →
5/ live prices
> us 10-year yield: the reference price of money worldwide. ripping higher = pain for tech and crypto, falling = they breathe. watch the direction. →
> 2s10s curve: the recession oracle, when it inverts (negative), the bond market bets on a slowdown. every inversion since 1976 preceded a recession. the recession starts when it un-inverts. →
> dxy: dollar index, strong dollar = brake on stocks, commodities and crypto. weak = tailwind. →
6/ commodities
> oil (wti/brent): expensive oil feeds inflation, makes the fed's job harder; also a read on global demand.
> gold: rises on fear, falling real rates, weak dollar, fiat distrust.
the monday routine:
1/ take the temperature
> 10y yield: up or down vs last week?
> dxy: strong or weak?
> vix: calm (<20) or stressed (>30)?
> high yield spreads: tight or widening?
2/ read the fed
> cme fedwatch: did cut odds rise or fall this week?
> any fomc meeting, minutes or major speech this week?
3/ scan the week's data
> open an econ calendar, filter for high impact (us), note the prints: cpi, pce, nfp, jobless claims, ism, retail sales.
> for each one: what's the forecast?
4/ check the edges
> oil (wti/brent), gold, copper: direction?
> crypto: fear & greed + btc etf flows