Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its all-time high, and on-chain data currently shows it is in a critical support zone: the median realized price is around $64.1k, and the 200-week moving average is approximately $61.7k. Historically, Bitcoin has spent only about 7% of trading time below this level, highlighting the importance of this range.

From a long-term valuation model perspective, there are several potential supports below the 200-week moving average:
• Realized Price: approximately $54k
• CVDD: approximately $46.2k (the most accurate historical bear market bottom anchor)
• Fair Price: around $40k
• Delta Price: about $35k (a deep capitulation zone under extreme panic, with less than 3% of trading days historically)
Combining past bear market experiences, the $46k to $54k range is more likely to be the bottom, while the $35k to $40k range represents an extreme risk zone. It’s worth noting that as the Bitcoin market matures, the retracement during bear markets has gradually narrowed: the maximum declines in the last few cycles were 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively, while this cycle has only fallen about 50% so far. There may still be further downside in the short term, but the higher-probability bottom remains in the aforementioned range.
If a rebound occurs later, the $75k to $79k range will be the first key recovery zone, while the approximately $93k 50-week moving average and previous all-time highs could become higher resistance levels.
Overall, Bitcoin is currently in an important medium- to long-term support zone. Investors can focus on the potential bottom in the $46,000–$54k range, while also monitoring upward rebound resistance levels for tactical positioning.
⚠️ Personal opinion only
Not a recommendation or advice
Crypto is high risk; please judge independently