Glassnode Co-founder: Bitcoin's historical valuation model indicates that $46k to $54k is a key bottom range

BlockBeats News, June 7 — Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, stated that Bitcoin has retraced about 50% from its all-time high. On-chain data shows that BTC is currently operating near a critical support zone formed by the realized price median ($64.1k) and the 200-week moving average ($61.7k). Historically, Bitcoin has spent only about 7% of its trading time below this level.

From a long-term valuation model perspective, below the 200-week moving average are the realized price (about $54k), CVDD (about $46.2k), equilibrium price (about $40k), and Delta price (about $35k). Each bear market bottom has previously touched this cost range before reversing, with CVDD considered the most accurate historical bottom anchor. According to the current model, the $46k to $54k range constitutes a higher probability bottom zone, while the $35k to $40k range represents a deep capitulation area in extreme panic scenarios, which has historically accounted for less than 3% of trading days.

However, as the Bitcoin market matures, the magnitude of cyclical retracements has shown a narrowing trend. Previous bear markets saw maximum declines of 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively, while this cycle has only fallen about 50% from its all-time high so far. This suggests that there is still potential for further downside, but the more probable bottom is in the $46k to $54k range. If a rebound occurs, the first significant recovery zone will be between $75k and $79k, with a larger resistance near the 50-week moving average at around $93k and previous all-time highs.