Glassnode Co-founder: Bitcoin may have entered the bottoming range, with a high probability that the bottom is between $46,000 and $54k

Deep Tide TechFlow News, on June 07, Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, published an analysis of Bitcoin’s price trend. He noted that Bitcoin is currently in the $62,000 range, down nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a 24% decline over the past month. The price has broken through the upper range of its pricing framework and entered the valuation cluster area where historical cycles have previously seen bottoms.

Rafael further pointed out that market bottoms cannot be confirmed in advance; instead, they can only be defined by probabilistic ranges and key price levels to identify potential bottoming signals. Bitcoin first fell below the median holder break-even line (for the first time since December 2022), and it is currently in a broader support zone: the median realized price is approximately $64.1k, and the 200-week moving average price is approximately $61.7k. The current high-probability bottom range may be $46,000–$54,000, while $35,000–$40,000 below that range is a rare “selling tail.” It is worth noting that the magnitude of the cycle pullback is gradually decreasing: the declines at the previous rounds’ lows were approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, while this round has fallen only about 50%. This suggests that the high-probability bottom is more likely to be in the upper part of the range, though extreme sell-offs cannot be ruled out.