PM (Philip Morris International) — Chart Analysis

$PM ‌#ChipStocksCrashedDowHitRecordHigh
Likely a dead-cat bounce — lean bearish. Here's why:
Price topped at $192.87, then broke down hard through the SuperTrend line (now resistance at $182.28)
The bounce from $168.93 brought price back to the MB ($178.48) but it has not reclaimed it convincingly
SuperTrend is still red/bearish — price is trading well below the $182.28 line
MACD is flat at -0.00, with both DIF and DEA at -1.48 — lines are converging but no bullish cross yet
The Bollinger Bands are still expanding downward — the orange lower band is still pointing down
The one bullish argument: price is hugging the MB and may be coiling. But it needs a clean close above $178.50 with follow-through to change the thesis.
🗺️ Trade Plan
🐻 BEARISH SCENARIO (Primary Plan)
Parameter
Level
Entry (Short)
$179.50–$181.00 (fail to hold MB/retest)
Stop Loss
$183.50 (above SuperTrend $182.28)
Target 1
$174.82 (today's low / near-term support)
Target 2
$169.49 (Lower Bollinger Band)
Target 3
$168.93 (prior swing low)
R:R
~1:2.5
Trigger: 4H candle that rallies into $179–$181, shows rejection wick, and closes back below MB.
🐂 BULLISH SCENARIO (Breakout Long)
Parameter
Level
Entry (Long)
$178.60+ confirmed close above MB
Stop Loss
$175.50
Target 1
$182.28 (SuperTrend resistance)
Target 2
$187.47 (Upper Bollinger Band)
R:R
~1:2
Trigger: 4H bullish candle that closes above $178.48 MB with MACD histogram flipping green. Don't chase — wait for confirmation.
⚠️ Key Levels to Watch
Level
Significance
$182.28
SuperTrend — must reclaim for bulls
$178.48
Middle BB — the battleground right now
$174.82
Today's low / nearest support
$169.49
Lower BB — maximum downside target
$168.93
Swing low — last line of defense
Bottom line: Respect the bearish structure until PM closes above $182.28. Until then, sell the rips, not the dips.