#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 How much longer can the storage bull market run? Goldman Sachs: Tight supply and demand could last another 2–3 years; Micron/Kioxia see it this way

On June 3, Morgan Stanley released a storage chip report. Its core conclusion is that the DRAM and NAND supply-and-demand imbalance cannot be resolved quickly, and shortages may persist for another 2–3 years or even longer.
DRAM has become the biggest bottleneck for AI computing power buildouts, and the willingness of ultra-large-scale customers to pay remains high. Goldman Sachs significantly raised its earnings forecasts and target prices for Micron (MU) and Kioxia (SNDK)—Micron’s target price was doubled from $520 to $1,050, and Kioxia’s was raised from $1,100 to $1,750, with both maintaining an Overweight rating.
Below are the key points:
1. DRAM shortages have no solution; supply growth is constrained
DRAM has become the primary bottleneck for AI buildouts. Shortages of cleanroom and EUV equipment limit supply growth, while the wafer consumption intensity of HBM further squeezes traditional DRAM production capacity.
Goldman Sachs expects DRAM pricing to rise 40% quarter over quarter in the May quarter, and another 15% in the August quarter. While this is below the supply-chain feedback of more than 20%, it is still strong enough.
Micron’s CY26/CY27 EPS forecast is raised by 4%/48%; CY27 EPS is expected to reach $113.85. With the current stock price, the implied P/E is still below 10x.
2. NAND is also tight; Kioxia benefits from enterprise SSD demand
AI inference demand is changing the structure of the NAND market, with ultra-large-scale customers locking in large volumes of high-performance NAND. Kioxia, the joint-venture partner, only made a slight adjustment to its long-term bit growth outlook—from 20% to 22%. Capital expenditures are kept low (about $4.7 billion per year), leaving limited supply incremental growth.
Goldman Sachs raised Kioxia’s CY26/CY27 EPS forecasts by 12%/24%; CY27 EPS is expected to reach $208. With a target price of $1,750, the P/E remains under 10x.
3. Long-term contracts are a “symptom,” not the “root cause”
The market is focused on multiple long-term supply agreements (LTA). Goldman Sachs believes LTAs are a necessary condition for customers to secure supply, showing that ultra-large-scale customers are willing to continue expanding their storage purchasing over the next several years, rather than price hikes being driven primarily by that. The real driver is still the imbalance between supply and demand.
4. Faster capital returns: buybacks are set to restart
Micron previously could not repurchase shares due to restrictions under the CHIPS Act. It is expected to launch large-scale buybacks starting FY27. Goldman Sachs’ model shows buybacks of about $50 billion in FY27–28. Kioxia’s free cash flow conversion rate has historically been even higher, and it also benefits similarly.
5. Valuation still has room to improve
Micron’s target price is based on 29.5x long-term cycle EPS ($35), and Kioxia’s is based on 28x cycle EPS ($62.5). Both are roughly in line with the semiconductor sector average. However, the current stock price still implies a P/E of less than 10x versus CY27 EPS. Goldman Sachs believes the market has not fully priced in the sustainability of earnings and the potential for multiple rounds of upward revisions.
Summary: Storage chips are in a historically severe shortage cycle. AI-driven demand structurally lifts the earnings “profit center,” and because capacity expansion on the supply side is constrained, the period of high earnings quality could last longer than expected.
Micron and Kioxia’s current valuations remain attractive. Re-negotiations of HBM contract terms in the second half of the year and the restart of buybacks are expected to become new catalysts. The risk is that if demand falls, high inventory could trigger a rapid price drop.
All the above information comes from Morgan Stanley’s research report and does not constitute investment advice.
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