#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 U.S. stocks plummeted: New leaders adjust, old leaders take the stage, the market turning point has arrived!

Terminology definitions:
New leaders = high-valuation growth sectors such as AI computing power, semiconductors, cutting-edge technology;
Old leaders = traditional blue chips with high dividends and low valuations, including banks, consumer staples, energy, pharmaceuticals, utilities;
The June 5th sharp decline marks a key turning point where the style shift from a single-sided rally driven by new leaders to an advantage for old leaders has begun.

I. Valuation structure logic: The bubble in new leaders' valuations bursts, revealing the valuation trough of old leaders
1. The overextended valuation of new leaders is releasing pressure
In the first half of 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by a maximum of 75%, AI hardware sector's dynamic PE generally ranged from 52 to 58 times, over 90% premium compared to historical averages; Broadcom's Q3 AI revenue guidance of $16 billion was below the market consensus of $16.3–17.2 billion, breaking the "AI performance always exceeds expectations" pricing logic. High-premium stocks lost valuation support, with Broadcom dropping 12.13% in a single day, dragging the semiconductor index down 10.26%, causing the valuation anchor of the new leaders' crowd to collapse. Previously, the market priced new leaders based on long-term growth premium expectations; as long as earnings couldn't beat expectations, selling was triggered, with near-zero tolerance for errors. The sharp decline completed the correction from bubble to reasonable valuation.
2. Old leaders' long-term valuations are at historic lows, with ample safety margins
The Dow Jones components (mainly old leaders) have an overall PE of only 12.7 times, with banks and consumer staples PE in the 20% percentile over the past decade, energy sector PE below 9 times, and high dividend yields generally between 3.5% and 5.2%. In a high-interest-rate environment, the valuation and cost-effectiveness of stable cash flow and dividends are significantly elevated. After the plunge, risk-averse funds prioritize allocating to undervalued troughs, initiating valuation recovery.
3. The valuation seesaw solidifies the trend: shifting from overvalued assets to undervalued assets is the underlying logic of this style rotation.

II. Macro liquidity logic: Rate expectations reverse, valuation paradigm shifts from growth to value
1. Non-farm payroll data reverses rate cut expectations; the 10-year US Treasury yield surpasses 4.51%. In May, US non-farm payrolls increased by 172k (expected 80k), with upward revisions of 93k in previous months, and unemployment remains at 4.3%. CME interest rate futures show the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December 2026 surges from 48% to 67.7%, with the full-year rate cut expectation essentially eliminated. High-valuation new leaders are priced based on forward cash flow discounting; rising yields directly compress present values. Old leaders have stable current cash flows, minimally impacted by rising discount rates, making liquidity conditions favor old leaders and suppress new leaders.
2. Persistent inflation disturbances reinforce tightening expectations; oil prices stabilize above $97/barrel, raising inflation concerns. The Fed finds it difficult to loosen policy. Long-term growth valuations of new leaders face pressure, while their anti-inflation attributes are further exploited by funds.
3. Liquidity turning point: easing fosters a bull market for new leaders, while marginal tightening begins the old leaders' rally. This plunge is the market's realization of the liquidity logic.

III. Capital behavior logic: Trillion-level existing funds reallocate, officially initiating profit-taking in new leaders and increasing positions in old leaders
1. Leading asset managers reduce holdings of new leaders early, accelerating realization of gains
BlackRock manages $5.7 trillion; in Q1 2026, it reduced holdings of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and other new leaders, nearly $200 billion in a single quarter. On June 5th, during the sharp decline, public funds and hedge funds took profits in AI hardware at high levels, with net outflows from the tech sector exceeding $112 billion in one day, with funds flowing into old leaders like ExxonMobil, Bank of America, Coca-Cola.
2. Market pattern confirms the switch: on June 5th, Nasdaq fell 4.18% (heavy hit to new leaders), Dow only fell 1.35%, and during the day, traditional blue chips in the Dow repeatedly reversed losses; banks, pharmaceuticals, and consumer staples all rose, forming a market feature of "new leaders plunge, old leaders resist decline and strengthen."
3. Irreversible capital shift under existing holdings: the total market funds in US stocks did not exit massively, only internal sector reallocations. The massive funds realized from new leaders are becoming long-term incremental funds for old leaders, and this switch is sustainable rather than a short-term pulse.

IV. Industry cycle logic: Growth in new leaders slows at the margin, fundamentals of old leaders remain stable
1. Capital expenditure on AI computing power declines at the margin; new leaders' boom peaks and recedes. Broadcom and Micron have lowered downstream server order expectations. Global AI capital expenditure growth rate drops from 72% in Q1 to an expected 41% in Q2. Hardware related to computing power shifts from rapid expansion to a slowdown cycle. The previously supported new leaders' rally loses fundamental backing; short-term AI application deployment falls short of expectations, story realization cycles lengthen, and funds withdraw from hype.
2. Old leaders' performance remains stable through cycles: demand for consumer staples is rigid, energy benefits from high oil prices, banks benefit from high interest margins. In Q2 2026, earnings growth for old leaders generally remains between 6% and 11%, with significantly higher earnings certainty than the declining-growth new leaders. In volatile environments, earnings certainty becomes the primary factor for fund allocation.
3. Industry cycle inflection point: new leaders' prosperity declines, old leaders' fundamentals remain steady. The market's shift from chasing high growth expectations to locking in stable profits marks the transition in industry valuation.

V. Market structure logic: Extreme crowding disintegrates, ending the polarization of 2019, and old leaders restore market breadth
1. Previous extreme crowding in US stocks: the top ten new leader tech stocks in the S&P 500 account for 40% of the total market value, 70% of trading volume concentrated in just 5% of high-value stocks, over 60% of traditional stocks have long-term declines, and existing funds are continuously siphoned by new leaders, leading to a distorted market structure.
2. The plunge breaks the single-sided crowding: after collective correction of new leaders, funds no longer concentrate on a single sector but diversify into undervalued old leaders. The market shifts from a single AI-driven bull to multi-sector rotation; historical patterns show that after extreme crowding disintegrates, style switching cycles typically last 3–8 months. This decline marks the beginning of structural reorganization.
3. Mid-tier (mid-cap) stocks also flow out: some non-hot tech and midstream manufacturing stocks follow old leaders' strength, further dispersing new leaders' existing holdings and accelerating the end of the new leaders' rally phase.

VI. Stage-based market outlook
(1) Short-term (1–3 weeks): new leaders stabilize at the bottom, old leaders rally
1. New leaders (AI chips, computing power): continue digesting valuations, retreat 5%–12%, only giants Nvidia and Apple resist declines, second-tier tech continues to correct;
2. Old leaders (banks, energy, consumer staples): driven by safe-haven funds, continue to rise, buffering the overall market, with the Dow showing stronger resilience than Nasdaq.

(2) Mid-term (March–October): old leaders become the main market theme, new leaders show structural divergence
1. Old leaders lead the rally: high-dividend value stocks continue bullish, energy, pharma, utilities take turns catching up, institutional allocations increase;
2. New leaders only have niche opportunities: low-positioned segments like AI applications and edge computing see sporadic rallies, overall market shifts from a broad rally to sector-specific themes.

(3) Long-term (Q4): only if inflation drops sharply and the Fed cuts rates will new leaders potentially restart a trend; without easing, old leaders will dominate throughout the second half of the year.

VII. Risks to the style switch
1. Optimistic reversal risk: US CPI quickly falls below 2%, the Fed restarts rate cuts, US Treasury yields drop below 4.2%, leading to a short-term technical rebound in new leaders and a slowdown in style switching;
2. Deep bear market risk: crude oil surpasses $100, wage inflation rebounds, the Fed hikes rates, US Treasury yields break above 4.8%, maximum drawdown for new leaders exceeds 20%, old leaders temporarily rally but follow the market correction with smaller declines than new leaders.

The above views are compiled from publicly available internet information and brokerage research reports and do not constitute any investment advice. Investment involves risks; please proceed cautiously. $NAS100 $US30500