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China Galaxy Macro: Strong Non-Farm Payrolls Do Not Mean the Federal Reserve Will Raise Interest Rates This Year

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Golden Finance reports that on June 7th, China Galaxy Macro Research believes that a strong non-farm payroll report does not mean the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates within the year. Overall, the May labor market data indicates that employment remains better than market expectations, and there is currently no short-term reason or data to support rate cuts by the Fed; however, the structure still shows no significant risk of labor market acceleration, nor will it push inflation into a spiral, so there is no need to overprice the risk of rate hikes within the year. Although non-farm payroll data has been relatively strong since March, in the short term, it only raises the threshold for the Fed to cut rates this year and will not lead to pressure to raise rates. Overall, market concerns about rate hikes have become the main trading theme. While China Galaxy Macro leans toward the market overpricing the risk of rate hikes, short-term lagging economic data cannot disprove the expectation of rate increases, and the Fed can only remain "data-dependent." Currently, after the extreme pricing of AI, the market faces a period of correction risk, and liquidity expectations will recover within the year, but patience is needed.
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