#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票

Up or down? Bottom fishing or defensive? Next week's US stock market outlook

Last week, US stocks rose then fell, and on Friday, a "black swan" event occurred, with the Nasdaq dropping over 4%, and AI tech stocks suffering heavy losses. Meanwhile, on the other side, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a long-awaited surge. So, what might happen to the US stock market next week? Should we bottom fish tech stocks or adopt a defensive stance? Let’s see what Little Fortune Teller’s analysis says:

1. Overall market trend three-stage deduction: Tech oscillates and builds a bottom, defensive trading dominates

Condition one: Macroeconomic pressure persists

‌Interest rate expectations weigh heavily‌: Non-farm payrolls added 172k jobs in May (far exceeding the expected 80k), pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield up to 4.54%. The market’s probability of a rate hike by the Fed in 2026 has risen above 60%. A high interest rate environment will continue to suppress tech stock valuations, especially negatively impacting software/cloud services with long profit realization cycles.

‌Geopolitical risks‌: Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated again, with widespread clashes, but the Middle East situation remains uncertain. Coupled with geopolitical tensions in East Asia (such as Japan’s movements), risk aversion may intermittently trigger tech stock sell-offs.

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Condition two: Capital flow shifts

Funds are moving from high-valuation AI concept stocks (like chips and large models) toward‌ defensive sectors (healthcare, finance, utilities). The Dow’s contrarian new high last week confirms this logic.

Within tech, there’s a divergence: “Hardware outperforms software, infrastructure outperforms applications,” with AI computing hardware (liquid cooling, optical communication) possibly becoming safe havens.

Conclusion: The market is mainly defensive, with low-risk stocks favored as funds switch between high and low valuation stocks. High-valuation tech stocks are entering a consolidation phase, setting the stage for a rebound.

In the first half of the week (June 8–10): The market will digest the non-farm payroll shock, and tech stocks may continue to test lows, with the Nasdaq possibly testing the 26,000 support level.

In the second half of the week (after June 11): After panic subsides, funds may flow back into high-confidence hardware leaders, brewing a technical rebound.

2. Major events impacting the market next week

1. US May CPI data (June 10)

Market expectations: Core CPI month-over-month will slightly decline to 0.3% (from 0.4%). If data meets or beats expectations, it will ease fears of “prolonged high rates,” giving tech stocks valuation breathing room; if it exceeds expectations again, the Nasdaq may dip back below 25,000, with AI chips and high-valuation software stocks being the first to be affected.

Current market pricing has partly incorporated hawkish expectations. Once data is released, volatility (VIX) may significantly decline.

2. Apple WWDC 2026 Developer Conference (June 8–12)

Apple will officially launch‌ Apple Intelligence, a system-level AI feature, including a deep overhaul of Siri, local large model operation, and cross-device intelligent collaboration. If demos are smooth and ecosystem integration clear, market confidence in “AI terminal deployment” will be reignited, boosting Apple’s stock and supply chain stocks, which will then influence the entire AI tech sector.

Market focus: Whether third-party model access is opened, whether AI subscription services are launched, and whether new hardware standards are defined.

3. Fed policy path expectations

Although the June meeting has a very high probability of holding rates steady, the dot plot has lowered the expected rate cuts this year from three to one. The market’s expectation for rate hikes this year remains high, transitioning from “fighting inflation” to “waiting for rate hikes.” As rates are sensitive assets, tech stocks will undergo valuation re-pricing as rate hike expectations intensify.

4. SpaceX IPO (June 12)

As the largest IPO in US stock history, SpaceX’s listing could have two effects: on one hand, it will greatly drain market liquidity, as institutional investors subscribing to SpaceX will actively reduce holdings in high-liquidity tech stocks. If the market cap exceeds the top 40 of the Nasdaq (around $300 billion), it will be included in the Nasdaq 100 within 15 trading days, requiring passive funds to buy $8–12 billion, plus other index demands totaling $33–52 billion. On the other hand, if the stock performs well, it could boost the aerospace and tech sectors; if it follows the high valuation IPO pattern of opening high and closing low, it may drag down related tech stocks.

3. Technical and capital flow signals

Nasdaq recent trend: After a 4.18% single-day plunge on June 6, technicals show a “high-level volume long shadow,” with short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day) in a bearish alignment. RSI has entered the neutral zone of 40–50, not yet oversold.

Capital flow: Institutional funds are rotating from AI chips (NVDA, AMD) into finance (JPM), healthcare (UNH), and high-dividend sectors. The net outflow from tech has reached its highest since 2026.

Options market: Nasdaq 100 put/call ratio has risen to 0.85 (median 0.7), indicating increasing bearish sentiment but not panic levels.

4. Next week’s trading strategies

1. Bottom fish tech stocks on dips, but control position sizes and watch for sector divergence

As market scrutiny of ROI (return on investment) for AI capital expenditure and profit realization tightens, funds are shifting from high-valuation concept stocks to those with strong earnings visibility. Be selective when bottom fishing—avoid blindly buying stocks like Meta, Adobe with questionable ROI. Focus on verifiable earnings stocks like liquid cooling (AVAV), memory chips (MU), optical modules (COHR), and consider some Apple AI terminal concept stocks.

2. Hedge risks by allocating to defensive sectors (e.g., healthcare ETF XLV, financial ETF XLF) to offset tech volatility

3. To avoid SpaceX’s high opening and low closing, reduce positions around June 12 and steer clear of aerospace stocks.

Family, what do you think about next week’s market? Do you find Little Fortune Teller’s analysis reasonable? Share your thoughts in the comments!