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“New Stock God” Serenity shares an investment methodology: identifying trends the market has not yet recognized, rather than following consensus
Serenity took Raspberry Pi (RPI) as an example, noting that while most investors still see it as an educational and DIY hardware, they have observed an increasing number of developers starting to deploy AI applications using Raspberry Pi and Apple Mac Mini, and have verified this trend through online tutorials, ultimately inferring that AI will become the company's new growth engine. Subsequently, the company's financial report showed a 58% year-over-year revenue increase, significantly higher than the market's previous 14% growth expectation.
When discussing the investment case of AXT (AXTI), Serenity stated that their judgment was based on research into the indium phosphide (InP) substrate industry chain and expectations of a photonics supercycle. At that time, the market generally believed that the relevant market size was limited, but they believed that AXT controlled about 40% of the InP supply chain share, holding a key bottleneck position, so its long-term value was seriously underestimated. Since then, Goldman Sachs and related industry chain companies have successively released research and performance data, validating some of their viewpoints.
Regarding X-FAB (XFAB), Serenity said that it is currently still in the "deduction and verification stage." Although the market generally does not regard it as a photonics company, they found in government documents, ASE data, and industry chain information that the company is becoming an important participant, and NVIDIA is evaluating its related capabilities. They will continue to observe whether more evidence can verify this investment logic in the coming months.
Serenity stated that many current investment opportunities come from comprehensive inferences based on fragmented information, real-world trends, and industry changes, rather than traditional valuation models. They believe that investing is essentially a process of combining long-term accumulated industry knowledge, life experience, and market analysis. High-confidence inferences, although prone to errors, are often an important source of excess returns.