#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 NVDA Market Analysis

Does Nvidia really have a bubble?
Conclusion: There is no performance bubble in the classic sense, but there is a significant macro liquidity premium. The essence of a bubble is a Ponzi valuation lacking free cash flow support (such as the price-to-earnings ratio during the internet bubble of the late 1990s). With a quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion, a gross margin of 75%, and $50.3 billion in operating cash flow, Nvidia has established a solid value foundation. Its forward P/E ratio (31-33 times) and PEG ratio (0.30) are even relatively low among large tech stocks. The current price pullback is squeezing the liquidity premium caused by the failed expectations of macro rate cuts, not bursting the performance bubble.

Is there still long-term upside potential?
Conclusion: It has extremely certain long-term doubling potential.
Artificial intelligence is evolving from text-based generative large models to multimodal “Physical AI / Agentic AI” that interacts with the physical world. Huang Renxun announced the Vera Rubin architecture and Groq 3 LPU at Computex, which, through modular upgrades from 1.5TB LPDDR5X to 768GB, have reduced inference costs by an order of magnitude. This collapse in computing costs will directly trigger widespread edge applications across thousands of industries, driving a restructuring of up to $1 trillion in computing infrastructure. This makes the core logic of its long-term rise unbreakable.

How high is the risk of Nvidia experiencing a significant pullback?
Conclusion: In the medium to short term, there is a very high tail risk of a pullback. Although long-term optimistic, in the coming weeks, the stock price is like walking a tightrope. The resurgence of Fed rate hike expectations, the death cross break of MACD and moving averages, and the Senate hearing on June 11 regarding military flows to China all hang over the stock. Technical models show that if the lower Bollinger Band at $200 is broken, a downward test of the $170-175 support level (an additional approximately 15% pullback) is a completely logical pessimistic scenario. $NVDA