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This downward signal is very clear: the market's concerns about interest rates are intensifying. In early June, it directly dropped without any chance to recover, with institutions continuously withdrawing, and ETF net outflows reaching nearly $3 billion; last Friday, the U.S. stock market plummeted, mainly because May's non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, causing the market's expectation of a rate hike this year to jump from 50% to over 70%.
More importantly, the trend is diverging: Bitcoin has fallen over 30% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has risen 10%; but last Friday, the correlation between the crypto market and the S&P 500 returned to 80%, indicating that once the macro tone shifts hawkish, neither side can escape.
Next week, focus on three points for U.S. stocks: first, Wednesday's CPI data—if inflation cools down, it may ease rate hike fears; second, SpaceX's IPO on Friday—whether it is a drain on the capital pool or a sentiment catalyst worth watching; third, the end of earnings season—results from Oracle and others may trigger individual stock volatility.
For long positions, maintain good defense, control position size, and short-term seek rebounds with light positions, entering and exiting quickly. Watch the U.S. stock trend, and be cautious of extreme market moves—if a plunge occurs, pay attention to position risk. Currently, market sentiment is extremely fearful; even if there is an oversold rebound, do not heavily chase.