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A Snapshot of the Recent AI Stock Bull Market from Oracle's Stock

Oracle's recent stock price trend can be seen as a microcosm of this round of AI bull market. In the first three trading days of this week, the stock price increased by over 25% cumulatively, yet on Friday, it plummeted nearly 10% in a single day, vividly illustrating how "the more it rises, the sharper the fall." The opening price on Friday was $229.490, with a high of $231.440, a low of $209.450, and a total market capitalization of $614.6 billion. Recently, the company's stock has experienced significant volatility, influenced by market sentiment, company performance expectations, and industry trends:

1. Surge in Capital Expenditure:
Oracle is racing to capture the AI computing power market, with capital expenditures soaring from $12 billion in 2025 to $50 billion in 2026, accounting for 75% of annual revenue, far exceeding industry peers. This led to free cash flow (FCF) plunging to -$13.2 billion in Q2 of fiscal 2026, well below the market expectation of -$5.2 billion, marking the worst performance in nearly two decades.

2. Gross Margin Collapse:
The non-GAAP gross margin for AI infrastructure is only 30%-40%, far below the 70%-80% of traditional software businesses, and also below Microsoft Azure (68%) and AWS (35%). The severely unbalanced input-output ratio raises doubts about its profitability.

3. Over-Concentration of OpenAI Orders:
Among Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $523 billion, 60% comes from a $300 billion order from OpenAI. Customer concentration exceeds safe thresholds; if OpenAI cancels orders, defaults, or delays payments, Oracle's performance could "collapse."

4. Overall Correction in the AI Sector:
Cloud giants like Microsoft and Amazon have experienced significant declines due to high capital expenditure growth and underwhelming profits, dragging down the entire AI infrastructure sector. Oracle, as a representative of AI computing power transformation into heavy assets, faces immediate market selling pressure.

5. Technical Adjustment Needs:
After a sharp rise earlier, Oracle's stock price shows signs of technical correction. The RSI indicates short-term overbought conditions, and the MACD has formed a death cross, suggesting short-term bearish dominance.

Technical Indicator Analysis

Trend and Moving Averages:
Oracle's stock price has recently been above the 30-day and 200-day moving averages, but today, the price fell sharply, breaking below the 30-day moving average (around $220), indicating a weakening short-term trend. However, the price remains above the 200-day moving average (around $207), so the long-term upward trend has not been fully broken.

RSI Indicator:
The RSI dropped sharply today, approaching the oversold zone (below 30), indicating a short-term rebound demand.

MACD Indicator:
The MACD histogram turned negative today, and the fast line crossed below the slow line to form a death cross, showing short-term bearishness. However, follow-up changes in the histogram should be monitored to assess the continuation of downward momentum.

Volume:
Trading volume today significantly increased to 29.0199 million shares, reflecting heightened market attention to Oracle's stock fluctuations and active capital participation.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels:
First support at $209.45: Today's low; a break below could test the $205 psychological level.
Strong support at $200: An integer level and near previous lows; breaking below could open up larger downside space.

Resistance Levels:
First resistance at $220: The position of the 30-day moving average, also the primary resistance for short-term rebounds.
Core resistance at $230: Near today's high; a breakout could confirm the formation of a short-term bottom, with targets around $235-$240.

Market Outlook

Short-term:
Oracle's stock may continue to fluctuate between $205 and $220 in the near term, with attention to volume changes and market sentiment. A volume breakout above $220 could challenge $230; a fall below $205 might test the $200 support.

Mid- to Long-term:
As a global leader in enterprise software and AI cloud infrastructure, Oracle's diversified business and growth potential are substantial. The company's cloud revenue share has surpassed 50%, becoming the primary growth engine. Additionally, collaborations with tech giants like OpenAI and its differentiated advantages in AI computing infrastructure will support future growth. Analysts generally remain optimistic about Oracle's prospects, with target prices mostly above $250.

Trading Recommendations

Stock Traders:
Aggressive Strategy: Consider entering with a small position if the price retraces to $205-$210, targeting $220-$230, with a stop-loss below $200.
Conservative Strategy: Wait for volume to break above $220 before entering, avoiding being shaken out during consolidation.

Options Traders:
Buy call options near $210 (strike price $220, expiration before June 20), or sell put options at $210 to collect premiums, leveraging volatility convergence for profit.