Glassnode’s on-chain model draws a bottom range of 46,000–54,000 (in “ten-thousand dollars”), and in extreme panic it could be as low as 35,000–40,000. But the tightening of the retracement suggests the probability of a deep sell-off is decreasing.

Wu said that Glassnode co-founder Rafael stated that Bitcoin has currently entered the bottom valuation range of the historical cycle. On-chain data models estimate that the most probable bottom area is between $46k and $54k (CVDD to realized price range); in case of extreme panic, a deeper defensive bottom line is in the $35k to $40k range. Since the retracement during each Bitcoin bear market is narrowing, the probability of a deep drop is relatively reduced. On the upside, the first key area the market needs to recover is between $75k and $79k. He emphasized that this is not a prediction, and the Bitcoin bottom cannot be precisely confirmed in advance.