#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 U.S. stocks plummeted: New leaders adjust, old leaders take the stage, the market turning point has arrived!

Terminology definitions:
New leaders = high-valuation growth sectors such as AI computing power, semiconductors, cutting-edge technology;
Old leaders = traditional blue chips with high dividends and low valuations such as banks, consumer staples, energy, pharmaceuticals, utilities;
The June 5th sharp decline marks a key turning point where the style shift from a unilateral rally driven by new leaders to an advantage for old leaders.

1. Valuation structure logic: The bubble in new leader valuations bursts, revealing the valuation troughs of old leaders
1.1 The valuation overextension of new leaders is released in a concentrated manner
In the first half of 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by a maximum of 75%, AI hardware sector’s dynamic PE generally ranged from 52 to 58 times, over 90% premium compared to historical averages; Broadcom’s Q3 AI revenue guidance of $16 billion was below the market consensus of $16.3–17.2 billion, breaking the “AI performance always exceeds expectations” pricing logic. High-premium stocks lose valuation support, with Broadcom dropping 12.13% in one day, driving the semiconductor index down 10.26%, the valuation anchor of the new leaders collapses. Previously, the market priced new leaders based on long-term growth potential, and as soon as earnings failed to surpass expectations, selling was triggered, with near-zero tolerance for errors. The sharp decline completes the correction from bubble to reasonable valuation.
1.2 Old leaders’ long-term valuations are at historic lows, with ample safety margins
The Dow Jones components (mainly old leaders) have an overall PE of only 12.7 times, with banks and consumer staples PE in the 20% percentile over the past decade, energy sector PE below 9 times, and high dividend yields generally between 3.5% and 5.2%. In a high-interest-rate environment, the valuation premium for stable cash flow and dividends significantly increases. After the decline, risk-averse funds prioritize allocating to undervalued troughs, initiating valuation recovery.
1.3 The valuation pendulum solidifies the trend: shifting funds from overvalued assets to undervalued assets is the underlying logic of this style rotation.

2. Macro liquidity logic: Interest rate expectations reverse, valuation paradigm shifts from growth to value
2.1 Non-farm payroll data reverses rate cut expectations, 10-year US Treasury yield rises above 4.51%. US non-farm jobs increased by 172k in May (expected 80k), with upward revisions of 93k in the previous two months, and unemployment remains at 4.3%. CME interest rate futures show the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December 2026 surges from 48% to 67.7%, with the full-year rate cut expectation essentially eliminated. High-valuation new leaders are priced based on forward cash flow discounting; rising yields directly compress present value. Old leaders have stable current cash flows, minimally impacted by rising discount rates, making liquidity conditions favor old leaders and suppress new leaders.
2.2 Persistent inflation disturbances reinforce tightening expectations; crude oil stabilizes above $97/barrel, raising inflation concerns. The Fed finds it difficult to loosen policy. Long-term growth valuations of new leaders face pressure, while old leaders’ anti-inflation attributes are further recognized by funds.
2.3 Liquidity turning point: easing fosters a bull market for new leaders, while marginal tightening initiates a rally for old leaders. This decline is the market’s realization of the liquidity logic.

3. Capital behavior logic: Trillion-level existing funds reallocate, officially initiating profit-taking for new leaders and increasing positions in old leaders
3.1 Leading asset managers reduce holdings of new leaders early, accelerating realization of gains
BlackRock manages $5.7 trillion, and in Q1 2026, it reduced holdings of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and other new leader giants, with nearly $200 billion in net disposals in a single quarter; on June 5th, during the sharp drop, public funds and hedge funds took profits on AI hardware at high levels, with net outflows from the tech sector exceeding $112 billion in one day, with funds flowing into old leaders like ExxonMobil, Bank of America, Coca-Cola.
3.2 Market signals confirm the style switch: on June 5th, Nasdaq fell 4.18% (new leaders heavily hit), while Dow only fell 1.35%, with the traditional blue-chip stocks repeatedly rebounding intraday; banks, pharmaceuticals, and consumer staples all rose across the board, showing a “sharp decline in new leaders, resilience of old leaders” market feature.
3.3 Irreversible capital shift under existing holdings: the total market funds in US stocks did not exit massively, only internal sector reallocations. The massive funds realized from new leaders are becoming long-term incremental capital for old leaders, and this switch is sustainable rather than a short-term pulse.

4. Industry cycle logic: New leaders’ growth slows at the margin, while fundamentals of old leaders remain stable
4.1 AI computing power capital expenditure declines at the margin, with new leaders’ prosperity peaking and receding. Broadcom and Micron have lowered downstream server order expectations. Global AI capital expenditure growth slowed from 72% in Q1 to an expected 41% in Q2. Hardware growth has entered a slowdown cycle, losing fundamental support after previously being driven by high prosperity; short-term AI application expectations are below forecasts, lengthening the story realization cycle, and funds are withdrawing from thematic speculation.
4.2 Old leaders’ performance remains stable across cycles: demand for consumer staples is rigid, energy benefits from high oil prices, banks benefit from high interest margins. In Q2 2026, earnings growth for old leaders generally maintained between 6% and 11%, with significantly higher earnings certainty than the declining-growth new leaders. In volatile environments, earnings certainty becomes the primary factor for fund allocation.
4.3 Industry cycle inflection point: new leaders’ prosperity declines, old leaders’ fundamentals remain steady. The market’s shift from chasing high-growth expectations to locking in stable profits completes the industry valuation transition.

5. Market structure logic: Extreme crowding disintegrates, ending the polarization, and old leaders restore market breadth
5.1 Prior extreme crowding in US stocks: the top ten new tech stocks in the S&P 500 account for 40% of the total market value, and 70% of trading volume concentrates in just 5% of high-value stocks. Over 60% of traditional stocks have long-term declines, with existing funds continuously siphoned by new leaders, creating a distorted market structure.
5.2 The sharp decline breaks the unilateral crowding pattern: after the collective correction of new leaders, funds are no longer concentrated in a single sector but diversify into undervalued old leaders. The market shifts from a single AI-driven bull to multi-sector rotation. Historical patterns show that after extreme crowding disintegrates, style switching cycles typically last 3–8 months. This decline marks the beginning of structural reorganization.
5.3 Mid-tier (mid-cap) stocks also flow out: some non-hot tech and midstream manufacturing stocks follow old leaders’ strength, further dispersing new leaders’ existing capital and accelerating the phased end of the new leader rally.

6. Stage-based market outlook
(1) Short-term (1–3 weeks): new leaders stabilize at the bottom, old leaders rally
1. New leaders (AI chips, computing power): continue digesting valuations, retrace 5%–12%, only giants like Nvidia and Apple resist declines, second-tier tech continues correction;
2. Old leaders (banks, energy, consumer staples): supported by safe-haven funds, continue to rise, buffering the overall market, with the Dow showing stronger resilience than Nasdaq.
(2) Mid-term (March–October): old leaders become the main market theme, new leaders show structural divergence
1. Old leaders lead the rally: high-dividend value stocks continue bullish, energy, pharma, utilities take turns catching up, institutional allocations keep rising;
2. New leaders only have niche opportunities: AI applications, edge computing, and other low-position segments see sporadic rallies, ending the broad-based bull market, shifting from a full-sector rally to localized themes.
(3) Long-term (Q4): only if inflation drops sharply and the Fed cuts rates will new leaders potentially restart a trend; without easing, the old leader rally persists through the second half of the year.

7. Two major risks in the style switch
1. Optimistic reversal risk: US CPI quickly falls below 2%, the Fed restarts rate cuts, US bond yields drop below 4.2%, leading to a short-term technical rebound in new leaders and a slowdown in style switching;
2. Deep bear market risk: crude oil surpasses $100, wage inflation rebounds, the Fed hikes rates, US bond yields break above 4.8%, maximum drawdown for new leaders exceeds 20%, old leaders temporarily rally then follow the market correction, but with a significantly smaller decline than new leaders.

The above views are compiled from publicly available internet information and brokerage research reports and do not constitute any investment advice. Investing involves risks; proceed cautiously.