#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票

ExxonMobil's value may be undervalued

On Friday, ExxonMobil closed at $149.92, down 1.39% for the day, with intraday fluctuations between $149.30 and $152.13. This adjustment is a technical pullback following a 52-week high the day before, mainly due to:

‌Crude oil inventory pressure‌: EIA data shows commercial crude oil inventories rose to 467 million barrels (above expectations by 1.2 million barrels);

‌Profit-taking‌: Since the beginning of the year, gains have exceeded 26%, with some funds locking in profits before dividend payments;

‌Sector rotation‌: A sharp decline in tech stocks triggered market risk aversion, putting short-term pressure on energy stocks.

Key highlights: Tomorrow (June 8), a dividend of $2.06 per share will be paid, with a dividend yield of 1.33% providing support.

‌Technical indicator analysis‌

‌Trend and moving averages‌:

Short-term support lost the 30-day moving average (152.04 USD), but the 50-day moving average (146.80 USD) remains intact;

‌The 200-day moving average (132.35 USD) maintains a 45° upward slope, indicating a healthy long-term bull market structure.

‌Momentum indicators‌:

‌RSI dropped to 43.5: approaching the oversold threshold (30), with rebound momentum building;

‌MACD death cross widened‌: Histogram at -0.42, but no divergence between volume and price, indicating a healthy correction.

‌Options signals‌:

Maximum open interest for bullish contracts is concentrated at $155 (expiring in June), while put options are stacked at $145, forming a clear consolidation zone.

‌Key support and resistance levels‌

‌Support levels‌:

‌$148.50‌: 50-day moving average + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement (dual technical support);

‌$145.00‌: Options cluster + psychological level (last line of defense for bulls).

‌Resistance levels‌:

‌$152.30‌: 30-day moving average + intraday V-shaped rebound neckline;

‌$155.00‌: Historical high + maximum pain point for bullish options, breaking through could trigger a new trend.

‌Market outlook‌

‌Short-term (1 week)‌:

Expected to fluctuate within $145–$152, focusing on three catalysts:

‌Dividend payout on June 10‌: Ex-dividend date may trigger a "dividend arbitrage" rally;

‌OPEC monthly report on June 12‌: Any production quota cuts could boost oil prices;

‌EIA inventory changes‌: Current inventories at a 5-year high, with the pace of drawdowns determining the rebound strength.

‌Medium to long-term (3–6 months)‌:

Fundamental logic remains unchanged:

✅ ‌Undervaluation advantage‌: P/E ratio of 11.2x, below the industry average of 15.3x;

✅ ‌Strong cash flow‌: Q1 operating cash flow of $9.8 billion, dividend coverage ratio at 187%;

✅ ‌Accelerated strategic transformation‌: Carbon capture projects received $2.3 billion in U.S. government subsidies, hydrogen capacity to expand to 1 million tons/year by 2027.

Analysts' average target price is $172.05 (+14.7%), with Morgan Stanley recently upgrading the rating to "Overweight."

‌Trading recommendations‌

‌Short-term traders‌:

Build positions in batches below $148.50, with a stop-loss at $144.90 (below previous low);

Add on a breakout above $152, with target levels at $155 → $160, and stepwise profit-taking.

‌Long-term investors‌:

Current dividend yield of 1.33% + an average annual dividend growth of 6%, suitable as core holdings;

Use a "buy on a 5% dip" strategy, with ultimate accumulation at $140 (200-week moving average).

‌Options strategies‌:

Sell $145 put options (expiring June 21), with an annualized premium yield of 9.2%;

Buy $155/$160 bull call spreads to hedge volatility risk after dividends.

‌Risk warning‌: Position size ≤8%, focus on U.S. CPI data release on June 11 (energy weight at 9.2%).