Everyone is “trapped in positions”!

Currently, more than half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is in an unrealized loss state, based on an indicator derived from on-chain data from Glassnode.
This “loss supply ratio” has historically closely matched every major bear market bottom, making it a classic signal of extreme market pessimism.
From the chart:
• The red area (Bitcoin supply in loss) expands significantly in 2026;
• The orange area (supply in profit) clearly shrinks;
• The yellow line is Bitcoin’s price, showing that it has continued to decline since the end of 2024, driving the pain index for holders higher and higher.
Historical experience shows that when the loss supply reaches this high ratio, it usually means the market has seen widespread capitulation—often an opportunity zone where long-term investors start accumulating.
However, this typically isn’t an immediate reversal; it’s a process that takes several months to gradually form a bottom.
In short: many people are “trapped in positions” now, but history tells us that this is often one of the signals that the bear market is about to end.