On-chain, I no longer believe in "coincidental transfers" anymore... Let's start by tracing the path: which entry point did the same batch of funds come in from (exchange/cross-chain/mixing services), whether there was a quick dispersal to a bunch of new addresses in the middle, then a roundabout in a pool (basically laundering the source), and finally returning to similar assets within the same time window. Many look like two people transferring back and forth, but it's actually one person switching between several aliases to go through the process; the rhythm, amount's last digits, gas habits all tend to reveal themselves. Recently, everyone’s been talking about rate cut expectations, the US dollar index acting crazy along with risk assets—I care more about this: when such sentiment kicks in, on-chain paths become more "forceful," and the more frantic, the easier it is to leave fingerprints.