I tried once, using data from stablecoin supply to compare with ETF net inflows, and then casually looked at a few large OTC inflows and outflows. The more I looked, the more it seemed like "everyone is moving at the same time" rather than "who caused what." Sometimes, an increase in supply is just coins being minted on the way, and ETF inflows also take time to settle. What really pushes the market into chaos are the on-chain congestion and emotions—when gas fees are high, no one wants to move, and liquidity suddenly shrinks. Recently, with staking and shared security yield stacking being criticized as a copycat scheme, I can understand... It looks lively on paper, but where the money comes from and when it can be withdrawn are two different things. Anyway, I now prefer to focus on block production rhythm—handle interactions during low activity periods, and don't mistake correlation for causation to add drama to yourself.