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The most easily overlooked thing is not the 64.5% increase, but $HEI contract premium dropping to -10.0011%, which is quite significant when placed on the top-ranked asset.
The gap between spot and futures prices is so intense, indicating that the market sentiment on the futures side hasn't smoothly followed the price increase; instead, it seems like someone is still holding short positions at high levels.
The key number to watch is the funding rate, from -0.0075% on the top-ranked $NIL 30 minutes ago to -2.0% now, which isn't just slightly bearish—it's a situation where shorts are paying fees at full capacity to make their presence felt.
The first implication is that shorting costs are rapidly increasing, and the two consecutive periods of short paying fees combined with the "possible short squeeze" label suggest that the market isn't just pushing prices higher but also squeezing out short positions.
The second implication is that while the price increase is still near the top-ranked asset at around 0.15099, with a 24-hour high of 0.1725 just overhead, the market isn't lacking bearish views; rather, the more shorts are bearish, the more they have to pay to hold their positions.
Looking at open interest (OI), currently at $5.4 million, up 10.5% in 24 hours but down 16.4% in the last hour.
This data is crucial, indicating that while there was indeed a surge of positions earlier, there has been a clear withdrawal in the last hour, not like an endless leverage push but more like profit-taking or passive liquidation after a price spike.
Taker buy rate has decreased from 1.13 to 1.11, with active buy orders still slightly ahead, but the gap isn't widening.
On the long vs. short side, long positions' proportion has increased from 46% to 56%, showing retail traders' sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish, with traders chasing the price.
So, the most interesting contradiction here is that the funding rate still shows shorts are being charged, while OI is shrinking in the short term, and long positions are increasing. This is a typical late-stage market pattern: the activity is lively, but the structure isn't as clean as in the early stages.
The real point to watch isn't whether new highs can be made but whether, if the price approaches 0.1725 again, OI will expand again or continue to shrink.
If OI continues to fall from $5.4 million, the funding rate quickly returns toward zero from -2.0%, and taker buy rate drops below 1, then the "short squeeze logic" needs to be reconsidered.
$HEI $HEI # Short squeeze market
Generated with Claude Opus 4.8. AI may make errors; information is for reference only.