The Gold Friday non-farm payrolls can be said to have given the market yet another lesson—and it should also have fully shown everyone what a “black swan” one-sided move on Friday looks like. In fact, last night’s sell-off was triggered by the stacking of too many factors, which led to a “gold flooding” style drop. First, because the non-farm data was significantly bearish for gold and silver, this was the first step in confirming gold’s downward move. Then, as the bearish impact of the non-farm data continued, the technical picture gradually broke below this week’s and the prior period’s lowest level in the 4425-4400 range, and this in turn triggered a second round of “flood-like” sell-off. Since the market basically treated the 4400 level as the short-term boundary between bulls and bears, once it was broken, the bears would accelerate the decline. And last night, the bears delivered—falling directly to the downside near the lowest level in the past two months, the 4311 level. Even as late as just before the close, only then did signs of a modest rebound begin to appear.

Although Friday’s market does tend to see one-sided black swan volatility, in reality it is precisely because of influences from multiple aspects that Friday trading more easily produces larger one-sided moves. So, going forward, every time we trade on Fridays, we still need to be especially cautious. After all, you learn from every setback—this is our experience from years of analysis!