$BRENT

Brent crude has indeed broken below the $95.11/bbl support, closing the week at $91.75/bbl, confirming continued downside momentum in the short-term trend. From the recent peak around $113/bbl, prices have now corrected by roughly 20%, reflecting a gradual unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium embedded during the earlier escalation phase.
The broader driver remains the shifting US–Iran narrative, where markets are increasingly pricing in some form of de-escalation or managed diplomatic resolution. However, this is not a clean "peace pricing” regime yet; volatility remains elevated as supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz are still partially unresolved, keeping a floor under prices.
Technically, the break below $95.11 signals weakening support structure, and the next key psychological and flow-driven area to watch is the low-$80s zone. The $81.11/bbl level becomes a plausible downside target in a full de-risking scenario, but that outcome would likely require sustained confirmation of diplomatic progress, not just headlines.
In the near term, price action is likely to remain headline-sensitive, oscillating between geopolitical risk unwind and residual supply tightness, rather than moving in a straight-line decline.
#NFA