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Analyst questions SpaceX's $1.75 trillion valuation: revenue must grow nearly 60 times in the next decade, unprecedented

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Mars Finance News, June 6 — The magazine Fortune, citing research firm New Constructs CEO David Trainer, stated that to support a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, SpaceX needs to increase its annual revenue to about $1.1 trillion by 2035, nearly 60 times the $18.7 billion in 2025, which corresponds to an average annual revenue growth rate of about 50% over the next decade. According to SpaceX's previously filed IPO documents, the company's revenue in 2025 is $18.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.9 billion. Trainer estimated, based on a discounted cash flow model, that if investors want to achieve an annualized return of about 10% over the next ten years, SpaceX must reach the aforementioned growth target. Analysis indicates that if revenue reaches $1.1 trillion, SpaceX's income will be approximately 2.4% of the US GDP in 2035, with an economic scale surpassing the entire US utility industry and approaching three-quarters of the US transportation industry. Trainer stated that although the artificial intelligence market has enormous potential, many competitors including Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, and OpenAI are competing for market share, and achieving such scale growth for SpaceX is unprecedented. He believes that SpaceX may not only become the largest IPO in history but also the most expensive valuation ever.
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