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Bitcoin Has 125 Days Left to Reach the Actual Bottom, Chart Warns

Bitcoin
BTCUSD
trades around US$60,000 after dropping 5% in one day, now roughly 50% below its all-time high. Three widely shared charts indicate that the four-year cycle still applies and the next cycle's low point is still ahead.

This pattern aligns with the latest analysis from BeInCrypto, which predicts the cycle bottom will occur in the fourth quarter of 2026. These charts provide estimated dates and prices for that hypothesis.

Bitcoin Halving Clock Approaching Day 900

The first chart, from analyst Jesse Olson, aligns the four cycles since 2012 with the 2024 halving. Each previous cycle reached its low point around day 900 after the halving.

Currently, the cycle has reached day 775 this week. So, there are about 125 days left, or roughly four months, before the historical low window begins to open.

On this chart, the orange band marks the projected bottom around US$40,000. The black line for 2024 has already started to decline, similar to the post-peak declines in 2012, 2016, and 2020. BeInCrypto's previous analysis also found the same halving rhythm pattern.

Bitcoin Spiral Confirms This Cycle Is Not Different

The second chart depicts price in a spiral form. Each turn represents one four-year cycle. The spiral's angle indicates the position within the cycle, and the distance from the center shows the price.

Price peaks cluster in one arc, lows in another, and halving events are on the third arc. The 2026 and 2027 markers are within the same arc as all previous lows.

The analyst notes on the chart, “This time is different,” to reference institutional narratives. However, the consistent spiral pattern actually suggests the opposite.

Moving Average Now Acts as Resistance

The third chart shows levels Bitcoin needs to break through again. The 21-week simple moving average is at US$75,100, the short-term holder average cost at US$77,000, and the 200-day moving average at US$78,900.

During a bull phase, all three act as support. But now, they are all above the price as resistance. The price below the short-term holder average cost indicates recent buyers, who are most likely to sell, are experiencing losses.

Since then, BTC has continued to decline toward the 50% downtrend line around US$63,000. The newsletter sharing this chart describes the decline as a slow capitulation, not a sharp drop.

Cycle Timing Aligns with October

These charts are consistent with BeInCrypto's latest report on analyst Benjamin Cowen. He states that Bitcoin peaked on day 1,162 of the cycle, just a week away from the previous two peaks on days 1,059 and 1,168.

“Bitcoin reached its peak just one week from the usual historical timing, despite narratives claiming the four-year cycle is over.”

Cowen predicts the cycle bottom will occur in October 2026. His estimate is only about 125 days away, matching Olson's projection of day 900.

Where a Bull Scenario Could Break This Pattern

This hypothesis is not certain. Spot ETFs, corporate cash demand, and national reserve narratives have attracted new money into Bitcoin on an unprecedented scale in previous cycles.

Some analysts believe these institutional funds could extend or flatten the cycle, rather than repeating the same pattern. Bitcoin closing the week above the US$78,900 average would weaken the bearish outlook.

Currently, the burden of proof is on the bulls. As long as Bitcoin has not broken back above these resistance levels, the easiest path still points downward.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

Three independent methods—halving day calculations, cycle spiral, and price structure—all lead to the same conclusion. They all indicate that Bitcoin has not yet found its cycle bottom.

A drop to around US$40,000 would align with the orange target and on-chain price floor. A 50% decline near US$63,000 is the first marker; if broken, lower levels could be reached.

The most likely window is in the fourth quarter of 2026, approaching October. Bitcoin breaking back above US$79,000 on a weekly basis would be a strong first signal that this pattern is truly broken.