AI Stock Guru Serenity: The Reason for the Semiconductor Stocks' Plunge is "Media Making Up Stories," The Actual Culprit Is the Rate Hike Probability

AI Stock Guru Serenity Posts on the Day of the Largest Drop Since the Pandemic in the Semiconductor Sector, Pointing Out That Leading Stocks NVDA Only Fell 4.87%, MU Fell 7.03%, and High Beta Stocks like PL Dropped Over 22%, But "Media Narratives Are All About Making Up Stories," While Broadcom Clearly Forecasts AI Demand to Remain Strong Until 2028. He Believes the Real Driver Is the Rising Probability of Rate Hikes.
(Background Recap: AI Stock Guru Serenity Names Four Photonics Stocks: AAOI Surges 11 Times and Expands Production, XFAB Calls for a 76% Rally)
(Additional Context: "Huang Renxun's Stock Picks" All Fail! The Nasdaq Falls 10%, Chip Stocks Lose 1.3 Trillion USD in Market Cap)

Key Summary

• AI Stock Guru Serenity Says the Nasdaq's Crash "Media Narratives Are All About Making Up Stories," While Broadcom Clearly Forecasts AI Demand to Remain Strong Until 2028
• He Believes the True Driver Is the Rising Probability of Rate Hikes, with CME FedWatch Showing About a 51% Chance of Rate Hike by Year-End
• Serenity Names Optical Stock AAOI, with a Monthly Revenue Guidance of $471 Million, Indicating Continued Holding Without Trading the Fed's Probability

The Nasdaq Crashed 10.26% in a Single Day, Bloodbath in the AI Semiconductor Sector, but Someone Seems Very Calm. Serenity, an anonymous trader with a publicly disclosed return of over 4,500% by 2026, posted on X platform on the day of the plunge.

Fun times with market corrections.

Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%.

Funny to see media always trying to explain like:

"Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks"

Broadcom projected… pic.twitter.com/D1cE7sjKBs

— Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) June 5, 2026

He listed the declines one by one, including NVIDIA down 4.87%, Micron (MU) down 7.03%, and high beta stock Planet Labs (PL) down over 22%. But in his view, this is not a panic signal, but "media making up stories."

Broadcom Clearly Looks Bright Until 2028

Serenity criticizes the sensational headlines in the media for a single day, because Broadcom in its latest earnings forecasted AI demand as "insatiable," with an annual AI semiconductor revenue target of $56 billion extending to 2028. How can that be bad news?

He states that AI infrastructure remains unchanged; only capital expenditures are increasing. When capital spending goes up while stock prices go down, the market is pricing in emotion, not fundamentals.

He then offers his judgment: the real driver of this correction is the rising probability of rate hikes. In May, non-farm payrolls increased by 172k, far exceeding the expected 85k, and April's CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, a three-year high. CME FedWatch shows the chance of a rate hike by year-end has risen to about 51%. Although the FOMC on June 16-17 has a 99.4% chance of holding steady, the market is preemptively reacting to the interest rate risks for the second half of the year.

AAOI's Monthly Revenue Guidance of $471 Million Remains Unchanged

Serenity concludes by highlighting AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics), citing management's guidance of $471 million in H1 2027 data center monthly revenue, covering 800G and 1.6T optical transceiver modules. This company is a key supplier for AI data center optical interconnects, with Q1 2026 revenue of $151 million, up 51% year-over-year, and data center revenue up 154%. The full-year guidance has been raised to over $1.1 billion.

His attitude is very clear: he does not trade based on Federal Reserve decision probabilities, but continues to hold based on company fundamentals.

This is not investment advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Serenity believe is the real reason for the Nasdaq's plunge?

Serenity believes the main reason is not Broadcom's negative outlook or slowing AI demand, but the rising probability of rate hikes. In May, non-farm payrolls increased by 172k, far exceeding expectations, and April's CPI hit 3.8%, a three-year high. CME FedWatch shows about a 51% chance of a rate hike by year-end, with the market preemptively reacting to interest rate risks.

What is AAOI? Why does Serenity mention it specifically?

AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) is a supplier of optical interconnects for AI data centers, with Q1 2026 revenue up 51% year-over-year and full-year guidance exceeding $1.1 billion. Serenity cites its H1 2027 monthly revenue guidance of $471 million as evidence of ongoing AI infrastructure expansion.