Shorting in the short term, going long in the long term! “Doomsday Doctor” partner: Bitcoin could crash 70% in the short run, but the long-term outlook points to $500k.

Co-founder of Atlas Capital, Bundy, predicts that Bitcoin could plummet 70% to $30k in the next six months due to a macroeconomic storm, but in the long term, benefiting from the collapse of fiat currency trust, it could surge to $500k.

Just as crypto investors are still hoping for a Bitcoin rebound, Reza Bundy, who co-founded Atlas Capital with "Doomsday Doctor" Nouriel Roubini, has made a shocking forecast: Bitcoin may crash 70% within the next six months, dropping to the $26k–$30k range; but after enduring the pain, it could soar to $150k–$500k in the coming years.

Recently, in an interview with CoinDesk at the Paris "Proof of Talk" forum, Reza Bundy poured cold water on the traditionally optimistic crypto sentiment and issued a stern macroeconomic warning:

We believe Bitcoin will experience a significant retracement within the next six months, with a potential decline of up to 70%. Our estimated bottom price is around $26k–$30k. If the US stock market experiences a decline half the scale of the 2008 financial crisis, Bitcoin's drop will be twice that of the stock market.

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $62,300, down nearly 28% this year; in contrast, the US stock market, driven by the AI boom and capital chasing high momentum, has risen 10% in the S&P 500 and about 19% in the Nasdaq, outperforming Bitcoin.

Reza Bundy states that this pessimistic forecast is based on data and analysis models he developed jointly with Nouriel Roubini.

Nouriel Roubini, known as the "Doomsday Doctor" for accurately predicting the 2008 subprime crisis, is also a long-term critic of Bitcoin. Despite Bitcoin soaring about 850% since he first called it a "bubble," he still insists that Bitcoin is a "pseudo-asset" and a "speculative asset," lacking fundamental value and practical use, and cannot be compared to real-world safe-haven assets like gold.

Bitcoin "Safe-Haven Myth" Shattered

At least in the short term, Reza Bundy agrees with this pessimistic outlook. He points out that Bitcoin has not demonstrated the "inflation hedge" function praised by bulls; at best, it is now a "high-volatility risk asset" highly correlated with tech stocks.

This view also aligns with recent comments from billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who previously stated that Bitcoin failed to serve as a hedge during geopolitical turmoil and US dollar weakness, leading him to sell most of his Bitcoin holdings.

Short-term bearish, long-term bullish! Looking ahead to $500k

Despite extreme short-term pessimism, Reza Bundy is not permanently bearish on Bitcoin. From a long-term perspective, he remains a believer in Bitcoin's "store of value" theory and sets a long-term target of $150k–$500k. This stance diverges from that of his partner Nouriel Roubini.

Reza Bundy's optimism stems from Bitcoin's original vision: as an alternative currency to counter global political and monetary chaos. He believes that high national debt levels, reckless central bank money printing, and collapsing public trust in traditional fiat currencies will fuel Bitcoin's long-term explosion.

To illustrate this, Reza Bundy outlines four future economic scenarios to project Bitcoin's long-term trend:

1. Controlled Expansion (40% probability): Global economic growth remains stable, inflation is controlled. Markets gradually rise, with Bitcoin reaching $150k–$250k.
2. Fiscal Dominance (25% probability): Governments print大量 money to fill huge debt gaps, triggering hyperinflation. This environment is highly favorable for scarce assets, potentially pushing Bitcoin to $250k–$500k.
3. Global Conflict (20% probability): Major geopolitical crises in Taiwan or the Middle East. Markets may initially crash due to panic but will ultimately prove Bitcoin's value as a neutral, safe-haven asset.
4. Deflationary Recession (15% probability): Severe credit freezes lead to Bitcoin weakening until central banks are forced to intervene and inject liquidity into the markets.

"Techno-dollar" Strategy: Avoid Collapse and Re-enter for Bottom-Fishing

However, on the short-term trading front, Reza Bundy remains convinced that a global financial storm is brewing. He warns that the current stock market bubble resembles the pre-1929 Great Depression, ready to burst at any moment. This pessimistic view is also the core of Atlas Capital's "Techno-dollar" investment strategy.

Reza Bundy explains that unlike linking digital tokens to a single, continuously devaluing fiat currency, this strategy uses AI-driven asset allocation models to dynamically shift exposure among physical assets like gold, food, real estate, and defense technology.

Currently, Atlas implements this asset allocation through a traditional ETF listed on Nasdaq (stock code: USAF). The fund has a net asset value of about $18 million, with a return of 8.7% since inception. Reza Bundy also plans to tokenize this fund later this month.

Given his strong long-term optimism, why not include Bitcoin in the fund's portfolio? Reza Bundy responds that he will wait until after the predicted "big crash." He says:

We are confident that the stock market is about to undergo a major correction, and we absolutely do not want to be caught in Bitcoin's plunge. Once this big wipeout is over, we will consider whether to include Bitcoin in our allocation.

• This article is reprinted with permission from "Block Guest"
• Original title: "Doomsday Doctor Partner Predicts: Bitcoin Could Drop 70% Short-term, Long-term Outlook at $500k"
• Original author: Block Sister Mel