Over these past two days I’ve been looking at options again, and the more I look, the more I feel this “time value” is pretty “ruthless”: if you’re the buyer, even if the market doesn’t move, you’re still slowly getting bled; if you’re the seller, watching a little premium come in every day feels great, but when you really run into a big move, one cut could wipe out everything you previously managed to take in. To put it simply, time value doesn’t pick sides—it’s just constantly looking for the less patient person to go after.

I’ve backtested a few times myself; the model can tell me the general rhythm, but when it comes to the actual order book, I still have to keep my hands in check… especially now, with all kinds of on-chain data tools and tag systems being criticized for lagging—sometimes you see a “smart money” tag and chase in, only to find they may have already left. Anyway, I’d rather do less now and not treat the illusion of “time is helping me” as the conclusion.