Analyst: The market is absorbing panic, and on-chain indicators show that Bitcoin has a bottoming-expected structure.

Mars Finance News, June 6th, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that yesterday BTC broke below the $60,000 psychological level, but market losses and sentiment indicators did not worsen in tandem. Currently, the 3-day moving average of realized losses (EARL) is $1.13 billion, nearly half of the value on February 5th. He believes this does not mean BTC will not continue to fall in the future, but the fact that EARL has not risen further at lower prices is a standard structure indicating a "bottom expectation."

If EARL represents the level of market panic, STH-RUL (short-term holder unrealized loss relative to cost) reflects the psychological pressure faced by new investors. During the decline after entering a bear market, short-term holders often experience severe psychological stress, with STH-RUL breaking through +5 standard deviations, indicating systemic crisis. Even if prices fall further afterward, STH-RUL usually does not surpass previous peaks because chips have already changed hands in high-loss zones, with new buyers at lower costs, and market pressure is being absorbed.

Murphy believes that the current consistent signals from EARL and STH-RUL indicate that market panic is being digested rather than spreading. Prices hit new lows, but loss indicators did not hit new highs simultaneously. While this is not a sufficient condition for a bottom, almost all true bottoms in history have this feature. Bottoming is a process of repeated pressure and digestion until chips are exchanged in panic, and new buyers' costs are low enough, allowing prices to gradually lose momentum for further decline.