‍#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票

SpaceX going public soon, will Tesla follow the rally?

Tesla closed last night at $391.00, down sharply by 6.56% for the day, with a trading volume of 63.42 million shares, and a turnover of $25.35B, with a total market capitalization of $1.47 trillion. The stock price dropped from an intraday high of $424.68 to a low of $388.59, closing near a three-month low, forming a typical “volume-driven long bearish candle.” Market sentiment is suppressed by multiple factors: the overall correction in U.S. tech stocks, lowered sales expectations for Broadcom’s AI chips raising doubts about AI infrastructure investment enthusiasm; Tesla’s vehicle sales outlook downgraded, with significant declines in the Chinese and EU markets year-over-year; although JPMorgan upgraded its rating, the market is more focused on the lagging progress of its Robotaxi deployment and the underwhelming FSD subscription conversions, putting valuation logic under pressure.

‌Technical Indicator Analysis‌

‌📊 RSI indicator: current value is 48.72, in a neutral to slightly weak zone, indicating short-term selling pressure has been released sufficiently but not yet entered oversold territory, and rebound momentum still needs confirmation;

‌📈 MACD pattern: the fast and slow lines form a death cross below the zero axis, with the green bars continuously expanding, indicating bearish momentum dominates, and the trend structure is clearly weakening;

‌📉 Bollinger Bands structure: the stock price has broken below the middle band ($412), closely following the lower band ($383.49), with the bandwidth at a historical high, reflecting a sharp increase in volatility, indicating a trend-based breakdown correction rather than short-term consolidation;

‌📌 Moving average system: the stock price has fallen below the 50-day moving average ($405.21) and the 200-day moving average ($412.13), with a “death cross” appearing in the long-term bullish moving averages, turning the medium-term trend from bullish to bearish, and technicals entering a critical observation period.

‌Key Support and Resistance Levels‌

‌🛡 Support levels:

‌$388.59: the lowest price of the day, forming a short-term support level between bulls and bears;

‌$383.49: Bollinger lower band, a strong technical support, breaking below will open the downside space;

‌$375.00–378.00: the Q1 2026 bottom and the starting point of the December 2025 rally, serving as the last line of defense for the medium-term bull;

‌$360.00: key psychological support in Q4 2025, a breach could trigger a wave of programmed stop-losses.

‌🚀 Resistance levels:

‌$395.00: the previous day’s closing price and the 5-day moving average, the first resistance for a short-term rebound;

‌$405.21: the 50-day moving average, failure to break through effectively will prolong the downtrend;

‌$412.13: the 200-day moving average, a lifeline for the medium-term bull, a breakout could reignite market confidence;

‌$420.00–425.00: the dense area of the Q2 2026 high points, a strong resistance zone, requiring volume to break through to confirm a reversal.

‌Market Outlook‌

‌⏱️ Short-term (1–2 weeks):

Market focus on the June 10 FSD V13.3 update and the progress of unsupervised Robotaxi testing. If Tesla announces the first driverless operations in Austin or San Francisco, the stock could stabilize and rebound in the $380–390 range; if delays continue or safety incidents occur, it may drop to the $375 support level.

‌📆 Mid-term (3–6 months):

Key variables are the surpassing of 15 million FSD subscriptions and clear timelines for Cybercab mass production. If Q3 2026 automotive gross margin rises above 18% and the Robotaxi fleet exceeds 2,500 vehicles, the valuation system will shift from “traditional automakers” to “AI mobility platforms,” with a target price of $480–520.

‌🔭 Long-term (1–3 years):

If Tesla successfully builds an integrated ecosystem of “autonomous driving + humanoid robots + self-developed chips,” with Terafab chips in mass production and Optimus robots reaching an annual capacity of over 1 million units, its long-term value could surpass Apple and Nvidia, becoming the only infrastructure platform for global AI endpoints and physical-world interaction, with a market cap potentially hitting $3 trillion–$4 trillion.

‌Trading Suggestions‌

‌⚡ Short-term traders:

Avoid chasing above $400; if the price retraces and stabilizes around $380–385, consider light long positions with stop-loss below $375, targeting $395–405;

‌📅 Mid-term investors:

Ideal entry zone is $375–385, buy in batches, with a target of $450–480, holding logic based on “FSD ecosystem explosion + Robotaxi turning point + self-developed chip breakthroughs,” recommended holding period of 6–12 months;

What do you think about Tesla’s stock price? Is now an ideal bottom-fishing position? Share your thoughts in the comments and teach Xiao Caishen how to play US stocks.