‍#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票

Finally, Nvidia’s stock price is discounted—should you buy now?

Nvidia closed last night at $205.10, down 6.20% for the day, with a total market capitalization of $4.96 trillion. Trading volume reached 220 million shares, and the trading value was $45.737 billion, making it one of the highest-traded individual stocks in the US market that day. The stock price quickly pulled back from the intraday high of $214.87, with the low reaching $204.33, forming a typical “high-volume bearish candle.” This reflects the market taking profits in a concentrated manner after a continuous run-up. Although the short-term pullback was sharp, the company’s fundamentals have not changed materially—Blackwell architecture GPUs remain in high demand, AI server orders have already been scheduled through 2027, data center revenue has stayed stable at 92%+ of total revenue, and global cloud providers’ capital expenditures continue to grow strongly.

‌Technical Indicator Analysis‌

‌📊 RSI indicator: the current value is 35.85, having entered the oversold region. This suggests that short-term selling pressure has been sufficiently released, and there is rebound momentum from a technical perspective, but no clear reversal signal has formed yet;

‌📈 MACD pattern: the fast line and slow line form a death cross below the zero axis, with green bars continuing to expand. Short-term bearish momentum remains dominant, and the strength of the trend is temporarily weakening;

‌📉 Bollinger Bands structure: the stock price is moving close to the lower band, and the middle band is at $210. The band width is at a historical high, reflecting a sharp rise in market volatility. This indicates a technical correction rather than a break of the underlying trend;

‌📌 Moving average system: the stock price has fallen below the 50-day moving average ($219.42), but it remains firmly above the 200-day moving average (around $185). The medium-term bullish structure has not been damaged, and it is still within a long-term uptrend channel.

‌Key Support and Resistance Levels‌

‌🛡️ Support levels:

‌$204.33: the day’s low, forming a short-term psychological line of defense;

‌$200.00: an integer level and a dense institutional positioning zone—an important guard line for bulls;

‌$185–190: the intersection area of the 200-day moving average and the 2025 Q4 upward platform, serving as the lifeline for medium-term bulls.

‌🚀 Resistance levels:

‌$210.00: the Bollinger middle band and the 5-day moving average overlap zone—first resistance for a short-term rebound;

‌$219.42: the 50-day moving average. If it cannot be effectively broken through, the stock is likely to remain in a range-bound pattern;

‌$225.00–230.00: a cluster of prior highs and early-June platform resistance;

‌$236.54: the 52-week high—strong technical resistance. A breakout would restart the upward channel.

‌Market Outlook‌

‌⏱️ Short term (1–2 weeks):

Market attention will focus on the Nvidia Q3 earnings preview to be released on June 10 and the procurement pace for AI servers. If institutions maintain expectations that “Blackwell shipments will exceed expectations,” the stock may stabilize and rebound in the $195–205 range. If the market becomes concerned that AI capital expenditures may slow down, it could test the $185 support.

‌📆 Medium term (3–6 months):

The key variables are the ramp-up speed of Blackwell chip production and the replacement pace of H100. If data center revenue in Q3–Q4 2026 grows by more than 80% year over year, and the gross margin stays at 75%+ , the valuation framework will shift from “AI concept stocks” to “AI infrastructure monopolist,” with a target price of $270–300.

‌🔭 Long term (1–3 years):

If Nvidia successfully builds a “chip + software + ecosystem” moat and dominates the three major scenarios of AI inference, edge computing, and robot training, its long-term value could surpass that of traditional technology giants, becoming the only global AI computing infrastructure supplier. The market capitalization could potentially reach $8 trillion–$10 trillion.

‌Trading Recommendations‌

‌⚡ For short-term traders:

Avoid chasing gains above $210. If the price pulls back and stabilizes in the $195–205 range, consider a light long position. Set a stop-loss below $190, targeting $215–225.

‌📅 For medium-term investors:

The ideal entry zone is $190–200. Accumulate in batches, targeting $250–270. The holding rationale is “rigid demand for AI computing + technological monopoly + high-gross-margin moat.” The suggested holding period is 6–12 months.

Little Fortune’s take is: after waiting so long, Nvidia finally lowered its price—adding positions could be an option. What do you think?