Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency market conditions are highly volatile. The content is for technical analysis reference only and does not constitute any investment or trading invitation.

## 1. Daily Cycle (Overall Bearish Dominance, Deeply Oversold)

1. **Moving Average Structure:** Price has fallen below the MA20/50/200 medium- and long-term moving averages across the board. All moving averages are arranged in a bearish downward layout. The dense zone of moving averages overhead forms a strong resistance area. The medium-term downtrend remains intact, and rebounds are only defined as pullbacks within the downtrend.

2. **Indicator Performance:** The daily Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and price is trading near the lower band. MACD is below the zero line; the green bars are converging slightly, indicating a slight weakening of bearish momentum. Daily RSI has dropped to the extreme oversold area around 20—technically it only supports a minor rebound, with no conditions for reversal and strength.

3. **Daily Key Price Levels**
**Resistance:** 1650 (first intraday resistance), 1770 (Bollinger middle band + MA20 resonance, heavy pressure), 1815 (daily bull-bear dividing line)
**Support:** 1530 (current intraday low), 1482 (high-concentration support of positions/“chips”), 1405 (medium-term downward target)

## 2. 4-Hour Cycle (Oversold Brewing a Short-Term Repair Rebound, Higher Probability of Rebound Rejection)

1. **Market Indicators:** 4H continues to decline in a step-like manner, with price far from short-term moving averages. RSI has fallen to 22 in the oversold zone. MACD green bars continue to shrink, and bottom divergence is gradually forming. Short-term rebound demand exists, but the midline at 1765 firmly caps the rebound height.

2. **4H Key Levels**
**Resistance:** 1635 → 1698 → 1772
**Support:** 1533 → 1485 → 1410

## 3. 1-Hour Short-Term Intraday Ranging Area

**Intraday range:** 1530—1652. Holding above 1650 suggests a short-term rebound attempting to probe around 1690. If 1530 is broken down with volume, follow-through selling will test the key support at 1482.

## 4. Market Funds and Intermarket Correlation Logic

1. **ETH spot ETF** continues to see net capital outflows. Institutional holdings keep being reduced. Short positions in perpetual/futures remain high. Long-side leverage reduction has not ended, and selling pressure is released intermittently.

2. The market is highly correlated with **BTC**. Until “the big coin” (BTC) effectively stabilizes and turns stronger, ETH is unlikely to break out into an independent upward trend. The altcoin sector overall is relatively weak, dragging the market.

## 5. Intraday Staged-Allocation Practical Strategy (Quick In-and-Out for Shorts, Strict Position Control; Avoid Heavy Position Bottom-Fishing)

1、**Light short-term long attempt** (betting on an oversold rebound; exit quickly without holding for a swing)

**Entry:** Go long with a light position in the 1533-1542 range; **Stop-loss:** 1520; **Take-profit:** 1620-1645;
**Second add-on long:** Pull back to 1483, confirm stabilization, then go long; **Stop-loss:** 1470; **Targets:** 1560 → 1630.

2、**Rebound-following high short** (the main intraday approach)

**Entry:** Batch sell shorts in the 1642-1650 area; **Stop-loss:** 1672; **Targets:** 1550 → 1530. If 1530 breaks, hold and look toward 1482;
**Second short:** If rebound meets resistance at 1760-1770, short into the pressure; **Stop-loss:** 1790; **Targets:** 1660 → 1540 → 1410.

3、**Conservative Observation Rules**

• Only if the daily close stands above 1815, may you set up swing-long positions;

• If 1482 key support is effectively broken, cancel all bottom-fishing plans and follow the bears toward 1405.
$ETH ‌#比特币ETF单日净流出7272枚

ETH-5.49%

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